Vaccine Adverse Event Rate vs Covid

The intent of this page is to provide some comparison data indicative of the risk between getting the vaccine versus getting Covid, for those deciding whether or not to get vaccinated.

To make an apples to apples compare, these rates are not time oriented, rather the rates are per the risk event, i.e. the one time event of getting vaccinated, or, getting covid (reported cases).1

The Covid risk specifically does not factor in the risk of getting virus in the first place. That is dependent on many other factors which are local and dependent on personal behaviors. The risk of getting the virus will likely not go away for many months though, if ever.


Higher level numbers of Vaccine Adverse Effects - from CDC VAERS Reporting System
Vaers Dec-Jun              
Age Vacinated Hosp Deaths D w Hosp %Hosp %Death %H or D  
00-05 187,548 11 3 1 0.0059% 0.0016% 0.0069% *
06-17 8,170,896 796 14 2 0.0097% 0.0002% 0.0099% *
18-29 23,973,847 1719 71 14 0.0072% 0.0003% 0.0074%  
30-39 22,979,881 2105 126 29 0.0092% 0.0005% 0.0096%  
40-49 23,493,511 2514 206 44 0.0107% 0.0009% 0.0114%  
50-64 43,102,144 5627 841 202 0.0131% 0.0020% 0.0145%  
65+ 44,968,737 10867 3896 1099 0.0242% 0.0087% 0.0304%  
U 1347 392 43  
Total 166,876,564 24986 5549 1434 0.0150% 0.0033% 0.0174%  
Vac/month 23,839,509 Months 7  
* 00-05 %s are low because using <12 vaccinated count (best available); 06-17, uses <18 vac count  
06-17 7,983,348 796 14 0.0100% 0.0002% 0.0101% **
** upper bound using vaccinated 12-17 cnt            


Covid Case Mortality and Adverse Effects compared to Vaccine's
Covid last 4 weeks in January Vaers
Age Grp Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths D w Hosp Hosp % Death % H or D% Age %Death %H or D
0 - 9 195,284 1,304 21 5 0.670% 0.010% 0.676% 00-05 0.0016% 0.0069%
10-19 416,111 1,912 41 11 0.460% 0.010% 0.467% 06-17 0.0002% 0.0099%
20 - 29 638,716 4,799 190 88 0.750% 0.030% 0.767% 18-29 0.0003% 0.0074%
30 - 39 564,138 6,863 456 237 1.220% 0.080% 1.255% 30-39 0.0005% 0.0096%
40 - 49 512,817 9,515 1,229 711 1.860% 0.240% 1.956% 40-49 0.0009% 0.0114%
50 - 59 508,125 16,501 3,376 2,086 3.250% 0.660% 3.501% 50-64 0.0020% 0.0145%
60 - 69 364,445 24,200 7,707 4,860 6.640% 2.110% 7.421% 65+ 0.0087% 0.0304%
70 - 79 201,099 26,228 12,025 7,385 13.040% 5.980% 15.350%
80+ 130,067 25,320 19,598 10,005 19.470% 15.070% 26.842%
All ages 3,579,144 116,750 44,650 25,389 3.260% 1.250% 3.800% Total 0.0033% 0.0174%



Vaers Dec-Apr              
Age Vacinated Hosp Deaths D w Hosp %Hosp %Death %H or D  
00-05 8,480 8 3 1 0.0943% 0.0354% 0.1179% *
06-17 1,840,639 122 8 2 0.0066% 0.0004% 0.0070% *
18-29 16,817,798 1182 51 13 0.0070% 0.0003% 0.0073%  
30-39 17,593,494 1705 94 26 0.0097% 0.0005% 0.0101%  
40-49 18,559,522 2125 165 44 0.0114% 0.0009% 0.0121%  
50-64 36,423,339 4913 719 195 0.0135% 0.0020% 0.0149%  
65+ 41,829,321 10410 3751 1089 0.0249% 0.0090% 0.0313%  
U 1066 275 37  
Total 133,072,593 21531 5066 1407 0.0162% 0.0038% 0.0189%  
Vac/month 26,614,519 Months 5  
* 00-05 %s are low because using <12 vaccinated count (best available); 06-17, uses <18 vac count  
06-17 1,832,159 122 8 0.0067% 0.0004% 0.0071% **
** upper bound using vaccinated 12-17 cnt            
Vaers May-Jun              
Age Vacinated Hosp Deaths D w Hosp %Hosp %Death %H or D  
00-05 179,068 3 0 0 0.0017% 0.0000% 0.0017% *
06-17 6,330,257 674 6 0 0.0106% 0.0001% 0.0107% *
18-29 7,156,049 537 20 1 0.0075% 0.0003% 0.0078%  
30-39 5,386,387 400 32 3 0.0074% 0.0006% 0.0080%  
40-49 4,933,989 389 41 0 0.0079% 0.0008% 0.0087%  
50-64 6,678,805 714 122 7 0.0107% 0.0018% 0.0124%  
65+ 3,139,416 457 145 10 0.0146% 0.0046% 0.0189%  
U 0 281 117 6  
Total 33,803,971 3455 483 27 0.0102% 0.0014% 0.0116%  
Vac/month 16,901,986 Months 2  
* 00-05 %s are low because using <12 vaccinated count (best available); 06-17, uses <18 vac count  
06-17 6,151,189 674 6 0.0110% 0.0001% 0.0111% **
** upper bound using vaccinated 12-17 cnt  
using vac <12 and <18 should be pretty close because theoretically under 12 are not eligible for vaccine.  
The <12 vaccinations may be trials? And in May-Jun may be using adjusted dosing to avoid adverse effects?    

Footnotes:
  1. Outcomes for vaccinated persons who do get infected are an order of magnitude less adverse than outcomes for the unvacccinated so showing a mixed set of case outcomes is of little value for deciding for the unvaccinated. At this time, because the aggregated CDC public case data does not distinguish cases amongst vaccinated vs unvaccinated, the best I could do for the unvaccinated mortality table, was to show outcomes from a period prior to vaccinations. Used most recent period that was still prior to vaccinations having an effect on the outcomes.
    The Covid mortality and adverse effects are from CDC aggregated case reports from the end of January, prior to these numbers having outcomes for vaccinated persons.

    PS. I have sent a request to the CDC data set owner asking them to add vaccination status for the case to the data set. If it becomes available will republish the covid risk based on numbers for the unvaccinated from the more current variant, and will add one for the vaccinated as well.