Weekly annualized death rates. 2019, 2020/21 other deaths, and covid
Week 2019 0-24 0-24 C 0-24 2019 25-44 25-44 C 25-44 2019 45-64 45-64 C 45-64 2019 65-74 65-74 C 65-74 2019 75+ 75+ C 75+ 2019 All ages All ages C All ages
02/27 19 14 0 43 40 3 171 141 23 179 159 30 499 423 60 910 779 115
02/20 18 14 0 40 41 3 170 153 30 176 167 38 506 446 79 911 822 150
02/13 17 15 0 41 46 4 170 157 36 177 168 46 505 445 104 910 831 191
02/06 18 16 0 42 48 5 171 160 44 180 176 59 508 465 137 919 864 246
01/30 17 17 1 40 45 7 172 160 52 175 174 68 509 466 168 913 863 295
01/23 17 17 0 41 46 8 170 163 58 176 178 78 506 479 198 909 882 343
01/16 17 17 0 40 50 7 168 168 62 177 182 86 511 493 221 914 910 376
01/09 17 16 1 42 51 8 172 172 62 178 180 86 507 491 229 916 909 385
01/02 18 18 1 44 52 8 174 172 59 176 187 81 504 506 223 916 934 371
12/26 19 17 0 46 49 7 168 174 55 177 182 74 508 499 216 918 920 351
12/19 18 18 0 44 49 6 165 170 49 176 183 72 500 499 210 902 919 337
12/12 18 17 0 44 49 5 166 175 44 173 182 64 504 505 203 905 929 317
12/05 18 18 0 44 48 5 168 168 39 174 181 59 495 485 180 899 899 284
11/28 18 18 0 43 50 5 161 163 33 169 178 50 480 480 153 871 890 241
11/21 18 18 0 43 50 4 162 166 29 175 181 42 485 484 131 882 900 206
11/14 19 20 0 43 50 3 163 170 24 171 180 33 482 484 104 878 904 165
11/07 18 19 0 44 54 3 165 171 19 173 180 29 475 490 85 875 914 135
10/31 17 18 0 45 50 2 157 164 16 164 178 23 466 466 67 849 876 108
10/24 18 17 0 43 49 2 156 166 14 166 171 19 466 469 58 848 873 92
10/17 18 19 0 43 49 2 159 163 12 168 172 17 465 457 49 853 861 80
10/10 18 20 0 42 53 2 156 171 12 163 175 16 456 469 44 834 888 75
10/03 18 20 0 44 50 2 157 165 11 160 174 15 447 458 38 825 868 66
09/26 17 19 0 44 52 2 156 167 12 163 175 15 448 470 38 828 881 67
09/19 19 20 0 42 51 2 153 166 12 156 174 15 442 456 38 813 868 66
09/12 18 21 0 41 52 2 153 168 14 159 169 17 440 451 39 811 861 72
09/05 19 20 0 46 54 2 157 169 14 156 172 17 437 449 44 814 864 78
08/29 18 20 0 43 54 2 154 168 17 159 170 21 429 456 49 803 867 89
08/22 18 20 0 44 53 3 153 169 20 157 176 23 430 462 53 801 880 99
08/15 18 20 0 44 54 4 151 172 22 159 177 25 429 460 61 801 883 113
08/08 18 20 0 45 54 4 155 175 24 158 173 28 436 454 66 812 875 123
08/01 18 20 0 43 55 4 154 171 26 158 175 30 434 455 68 808 875 130
07/25 19 21 0 45 55 5 156 171 26 157 174 30 434 456 67 811 877 128
07/18 19 21 0 43 57 5 157 171 23 160 173 25 433 455 59 811 877 112
07/11 19 22 0 43 55 4 159 177 19 158 177 20 437 448 46 816 879 90
07/04 19 21 0 46 54 3 160 174 15 159 170 15 438 447 37 822 865 71
06/27 20 20 0 42 54 2 156 167 13 160 168 13 442 447 32 820 856 60
06/20 18 20 0 44 53 2 156 167 12 162 169 12 442 438 34 821 848 60
06/13 19 21 0 42 52 2 156 167 13 163 166 14 447 436 37 827 842 66
06/06 19 21 0 45 55 2 161 169 14 162 164 17 448 434 46 835 843 79
05/30 20 19 0 44 54 2 158 162 16 160 164 20 446 439 58 828 838 96
05/23 18 19 0 42 53 3 158 167 19 165 165 23 460 447 69 843 852 113
05/16 18 19 0 41 52 3 158 166 22 163 168 28 461 460 90 841 866 144
05/09 18 19 0 41 52 4 161 171 27 163 169 36 456 460 108 840 871 176
05/02 18 18 0 44 52 4 158 165 30 167 173 41 460 471 131 848 879 207
04/25 17 19 0 42 50 4 159 169 38 165 173 48 459 502 152 842 915 243
04/18 18 17 0 42 48 6 161 169 44 165 180 56 470 521 162 856 935 268
04/11 18 19 0 43 51 7 161 178 48 169 191 57 479 545 143 871 984 255
04/04 18 17 0 42 48 6 166 179 34 171 189 37 492 541 81 888 974 158
03/28 18 18 0 42 47 2 163 170 11 171 180 11 496 522 25 890 937 50
03/21 18 18 0 41 47 0 167 169 2 173 183 2 498 501 5 896 918 9
03/14 17 18 0 43 46 0 168 169 0 178 184 0 503 501 1 909 918 1
03/07 17 18 0 44 47 0 171 173 0 181 185 0 506 512 0 919 934 1
02/29 19 19 0 43 46 0 171 172 0 179 183 0 499 509 0 910 929 0
02/22 18 17 0 40 46 0 170 170 0 176 181 0 506 508 0 911 922 0
02/15 17 18 0 41 45 0 170 170 0 177 182 0 505 506 0 910 921 0
02/08 18 19 0 42 45 0 171 173 0 180 182 0 508 511 0 919 931 0
02/01 17 18 0 40 44 0 172 170 0 175 183 0 509 507 0 913 921 0

This data is from death certificates to CDC which can be delayed 1 to 8 weeks. Left off 4 weeks, but last weeks shown for 2020/21 are likely still incomplete. Updated weekly at CDC on Wednesday; here, Thursday.

Detailed age table and excess death %s
Only weeks in virus period are included, i.e. after 3/14/20 thru 4 weeks ago. "Other causes" are from 2020/21, xtra% compares to corresponding 2019 weeks4
0-1y 1-4y 5-14y 15-24y 25-34y 35-44y 45-54y 55-64y 65-74y 75-84y 85+y All ages 65- 74 % of D 75+ % of D
D/100k annualized
Oth in all pop 5.55 0.99 1.62 11 22 30 52 118 177 213 264 893
Cvd in all pop 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.24 1.07 2.81 7.8 20 36 46 51 165
Within age group
Oth in age grp 464 21 13 82 154 235 417 911 1,844 4,372 13,085 893
Cvd in age grp 1.49 0.2 0.22 1.88 7.65 22 63 154 376 943 2,536 165
Stats w-in age
Pop (M) 3.92 15.66 40.99 42.69 45.93 41.65 40.88 42.44 31.49 15.97 6.61 328.23
% died other 0.447 0.02 0.012 0.079 0.148 0.226 0.401 0.876 1.773 4.204 12.582 0.859
% from covid 0.001 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.007 0.021 0.06 0.148 0.362 0.906 2.438 0.159
%xtra dths cvd 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.3 5.0 9.4 15.0 16.9 20.4 21.6 19.4 18.5
%xtra dths this yr -> -> -> 4.4 -> 27.2 -> 21.1 26.2 21.1 <- 22.0
Death Counts
Other Causes 17,505 3,131 5,098 33,739 68,074 93,956 163,830 371,577 558,221 671,357 831,657 2,818,145
Covid Deaths 56 30 86 771 3,379 8,856 24,614 62,777 113,873 144,750 161,175 520,367
2019 Deaths -> -> -> 57,847 -> 137,026 -> 514,309 532,476 1,494,119 <- 2,735,777
Covid -> -> -> 943 -> 12,235 -> 87,391 113,873 305,925 <- 520,367
Other vs 2019 -> -> -> 1,626 -> 25,004 -> 21,098 25,745 8,895 <- 82,368
Covid per Week
2021-02-27 1 1 1 16 34 127 410 1,046 1,903 2,080 1,731 7,350 26 52
2021-02-20 0 0 1 12 64 146 459 1,425 2,405 2,657 2,393 9,562 25 53
2021-02-13 1 0 1 16 65 198 634 1,691 2,927 3,418 3,218 12,169 24 55
2021-02-06 2 2 4 17 87 226 754 2,034 3,796 4,462 4,292 15,676 24 56
2021-01-30 1 0 4 27 106 321 918 2,423 4,339 5,362 5,352 18,853 23 57
2021-01-23 0 0 2 21 148 369 961 2,712 5,011 6,312 6,353 21,889 23 58
2021-01-16 1 0 4 26 131 340 1,033 2,911 5,467 6,871 7,218 24,002 23 59
2021-01-09 1 2 2 30 149 370 1,113 2,834 5,467 7,061 7,528 24,557 22 59
2021-01-02 4 1 4 34 135 357 1,061 2,714 5,171 6,645 7,562 23,688 22 60
2020-12-26 1 1 4 21 104 324 981 2,501 4,721 6,431 7,336 22,425 21 61
2020-12-19 1 2 0 26 119 264 875 2,270 4,569 6,079 7,298 21,503 21 62
2020-12-12 1 1 2 25 85 258 744 2,074 4,086 5,885 7,102 20,263 20 64
2020-12-05 3 2 3 14 81 233 679 1,829 3,792 5,359 6,111 18,106 21 63
2020-11-28 0 0 3 19 72 221 531 1,589 3,200 4,511 5,254 15,400 21 63
2020-11-21 3 1 2 15 71 165 473 1,353 2,704 3,871 4,509 13,167 21 64
2020-11-14 0 0 1 10 54 131 418 1,090 2,130 3,126 3,543 10,503 20 63
2020-11-07 2 1 2 9 50 124 331 853 1,829 2,571 2,873 8,645 21 63
2020-10-31 1 0 3 12 40 112 274 731 1,456 2,008 2,282 6,919 21 62
2020-10-24 2 0 1 6 31 88 242 629 1,226 1,687 1,992 5,904 21 62
2020-10-17 0 0 0 4 30 75 200 573 1,116 1,452 1,669 5,119 22 61
2020-10-10 1 0 1 8 29 77 217 568 1,039 1,383 1,442 4,765 22 59
2020-10-03 1 0 1 6 33 75 204 476 970 1,145 1,297 4,208 23 58
2020-09-26 1 0 1 5 31 85 221 530 962 1,168 1,266 4,270 23 57
2020-09-19 0 0 1 8 33 72 199 537 978 1,164 1,251 4,243 23 57
2020-09-12 3 0 1 13 41 105 258 639 1,062 1,232 1,248 4,602 23 54
2020-09-05 0 0 1 11 35 97 252 665 1,109 1,424 1,396 4,990 22 57
2020-08-29 0 0 1 12 38 104 287 790 1,337 1,521 1,621 5,711 23 55
2020-08-22 1 2 1 18 51 126 386 880 1,496 1,676 1,713 6,350 24 53
2020-08-15 1 2 0 20 57 172 421 1,004 1,626 1,984 1,934 7,221 23 54
2020-08-08 0 1 3 15 64 179 472 1,083 1,804 2,147 2,063 7,831 23 54
2020-08-01 2 0 5 21 62 199 506 1,185 1,932 2,207 2,159 8,278 23 53
2020-07-25 0 0 3 26 84 222 519 1,147 1,930 2,159 2,113 8,203 24 52
2020-07-18 1 0 2 23 100 196 462 1,037 1,606 1,826 1,910 7,163 22 52
2020-07-11 3 1 3 20 73 206 371 846 1,266 1,485 1,483 5,757 22 52
2020-07-04 2 0 2 20 71 148 324 635 975 1,085 1,261 4,523 22 52
2020-06-27 3 2 0 15 34 93 263 546 805 949 1,105 3,815 21 54
2020-06-20 0 1 0 11 32 102 239 520 762 959 1,202 3,828 20 56
2020-06-13 1 0 1 7 52 102 259 584 872 1,060 1,283 4,221 21 56
2020-06-06 1 2 0 6 40 105 297 589 1,075 1,266 1,644 5,025 21 58
2020-05-30 0 1 0 11 39 104 309 715 1,281 1,543 2,149 6,152 21 60
2020-05-23 0 0 0 6 61 115 329 862 1,454 1,858 2,530 7,215 20 61
2020-05-16 1 1 3 11 58 143 418 1,009 1,818 2,335 3,402 9,199 20 62
2020-05-09 2 1 4 19 58 172 463 1,273 2,298 2,910 4,015 11,215 20 62
2020-05-02 1 0 3 13 79 203 515 1,405 2,634 3,496 4,838 13,187 20 63
2020-04-25 2 0 1 23 72 212 701 1,753 3,056 4,199 5,475 15,494 20 62
2020-04-18 0 0 0 17 120 284 794 2,022 3,565 4,627 5,685 17,114 21 60
2020-04-11 1 1 2 25 111 308 851 2,184 3,641 4,423 4,704 16,251 22 56
2020-04-04 1 0 0 14 117 267 697 1,474 2,351 2,678 2,479 10,078 23 51
2020-03-28 2 0 1 6 43 115 247 470 714 836 749 3,183 22 50
2020-03-21 0 1 1 1 5 19 42 67 140 157 142 575 24 52
2020-03-14 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 6 17 15 17 57 30 56
2020-03-07 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 10 7 12 36 28 53
2020-02-29 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 2 2 10 20 40
2020-02-22 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 5 20 40
2020-02-15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020-02-08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2
2020-02-01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Survival (aka Recovery3) Rates1, (known outcomes) Recent 4 weeks

From CDC Surveillance system covid case reports published month-end. Cases thru 2 weeks prior. Missing age2

Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% R% w estm asymp
0 - 9 31,563 338 11 0 1.07% 0.03% 99.965% 99.92% 99.99%
10 - 19 67,042 489 15 2 0.73% 0.02% 99.978% 99.95% 100.00%
20 - 29 81,791 941 48 20 1.15% 0.06% 99.941% 99.87% 99.99%
30 - 39 71,809 1,234 90 40 1.72% 0.13% 99.875% 99.71% 99.97%
40 - 49 65,175 1,714 181 105 2.63% 0.28% 99.722% 99.36% 99.94%
50 - 59 65,681 2,751 389 204 4.19% 0.59% 99.408% 98.64% 99.87%
60 - 69 44,689 3,590 752 496 8.03% 1.68% 98.317% 96.14% 99.64%
70 - 79 21,079 3,490 1,082 694 16.56% 5.13% 94.867% 88.22% 98.90%
80+ 12,079 3,008 1,549 913 24.90% 12.82% 87.176% 70.57% 97.24%
All ages 462,205 17,566 4,121 2,475 3.80% 0.89% 99.108% 97.95% 99.81%
...prior 4 weeks
Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% R% w estm asymp
0 - 9 60,809 672 24 4 1.11% 0.04% 99.961% 99.91% 99.99%
10 - 19 125,680 910 26 3 0.72% 0.02% 99.979% 99.95% 100.00%
20 - 29 162,928 1,762 115 45 1.08% 0.07% 99.929% 99.84% 99.99%
30 - 39 147,425 2,487 220 114 1.69% 0.15% 99.851% 99.66% 99.97%
40 - 49 134,250 3,407 545 311 2.54% 0.41% 99.594% 99.09% 99.91%
50 - 59 133,860 6,003 1,538 914 4.48% 1.15% 98.851% 97.41% 99.76%
60 - 69 99,358 8,994 3,309 2,116 9.05% 3.33% 96.670% 92.50% 99.30%
70 - 79 55,370 9,860 5,176 3,297 17.81% 9.35% 90.652% 78.95% 98.03%
80+ 36,475 9,800 7,938 4,432 26.87% 21.76% 78.237% 51.00% 95.41%
All ages 957,645 43,916 18,898 11,236 4.59% 1.97% 98.027% 95.55% 99.58%
...from beginning
Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% R% w estm asymp
0 - 9 560,124 6,996 156 54 1.25% 0.03% 99.972% 99.95% 100.00%
10 - 19 1,305,404 10,999 320 144 0.84% 0.02% 99.975% 99.96% 100.00%
20 - 29 2,182,960 34,570 1,845 900 1.58% 0.08% 99.915% 99.86% 99.99%
30 - 39 1,910,978 52,421 4,718 2,731 2.74% 0.25% 99.753% 99.60% 99.96%
40 - 49 1,748,547 73,634 11,660 7,332 4.21% 0.67% 99.333% 98.93% 99.90%
50 - 59 1,714,319 119,063 30,882 20,171 6.95% 1.80% 98.199% 97.10% 99.73%
60 - 69 1,234,759 158,062 68,286 44,893 12.80% 5.53% 94.470% 91.10% 99.17%
70 - 79 707,936 165,101 105,452 65,545 23.32% 14.90% 85.104% 76.24% 97.77%
80+ 558,427 168,316 191,323 92,614 30.14% 34.26% 65.739% 48.20% 95.15%
All ages 11,936,619 789,414 414,684 234,395 6.61% 3.47% 96.526% 94.36% 99.47%
Survival Rates (best case assumption) Recent

Assume missing death indicator means did not die. Leave off additional 3 weeks to get more outcomes.

Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% R% w estm asymp
0 - 9 94,400 792 23 3 0.84% 0.02% 99.976% 99.94% 99.99%
10 - 19 201,054 1,097 22 4 0.55% 0.01% 99.989% 99.98% 100.00%
20 - 29 279,221 2,565 94 32 0.92% 0.03% 99.966% 99.92% 99.99%
30 - 39 247,460 3,579 193 98 1.45% 0.08% 99.922% 99.82% 99.98%
40 - 49 222,085 4,697 438 244 2.11% 0.20% 99.803% 99.55% 99.96%
50 - 59 220,586 8,016 1,168 661 3.63% 0.53% 99.471% 98.80% 99.89%
60 - 69 159,751 11,129 2,441 1,613 6.97% 1.53% 98.472% 96.53% 99.67%
70 - 79 84,295 11,422 3,712 2,368 13.55% 4.40% 95.596% 89.99% 99.06%
80+ 50,612 10,382 5,628 3,218 20.51% 11.12% 88.880% 74.74% 97.63%
All ages 1,568,241 53,759 13,726 8,241 3.43% 0.88% 99.125% 98.01% 99.81%
...prior 4 weeks (best case assumption)
Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% R% w estm asymp
0 - 9 195,284 1,304 21 5 0.67% 0.01% 99.989% 99.98% 100.00%
10 - 19 416,111 1,912 41 11 0.46% 0.01% 99.990% 99.98% 100.00%
20 - 29 638,716 4,799 190 88 0.75% 0.03% 99.970% 99.93% 99.99%
30 - 39 564,138 6,863 456 237 1.22% 0.08% 99.919% 99.82% 99.98%
40 - 49 512,817 9,515 1,229 711 1.86% 0.24% 99.760% 99.47% 99.95%
50 - 59 508,125 16,501 3,376 2,086 3.25% 0.66% 99.336% 98.53% 99.86%
60 - 69 364,445 24,200 7,707 4,860 6.64% 2.11% 97.885% 95.33% 99.56%
70 - 79 201,099 26,228 12,025 7,385 13.04% 5.98% 94.020% 86.79% 98.76%
80+ 130,067 25,320 19,598 10,005 19.47% 15.07% 84.932% 66.72% 96.88%
All ages 3,579,144 116,750 44,650 25,389 3.26% 1.25% 98.752% 97.24% 99.74%
...from beginning (best case assumption)
Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% R% w estm asymp
0 - 9 960,978 9,890 150 54 1.03% 0.02% 99.984% 99.97% 100.00%
10 - 19 2,318,134 15,925 312 143 0.69% 0.01% 99.987% 99.98% 100.00%
20 - 29 4,052,861 51,474 1,820 887 1.27% 0.04% 99.955% 99.93% 99.99%
30 - 39 3,534,733 76,359 4,662 2,707 2.16% 0.13% 99.868% 99.79% 99.98%
40 - 49 3,227,321 104,349 11,548 7,265 3.23% 0.36% 99.642% 99.42% 99.95%
50 - 59 3,150,214 165,271 30,662 20,059 5.25% 0.97% 99.027% 98.42% 99.85%
60 - 69 2,243,309 213,430 67,894 44,645 9.51% 3.03% 96.973% 95.07% 99.54%
70 - 79 1,245,410 215,056 104,889 65,188 17.27% 8.42% 91.578% 86.34% 98.72%
80+ 896,331 206,737 190,533 92,148 23.06% 21.26% 78.743% 67.14% 96.92%
All ages 21,792,455 1,058,975 412,510 233,106 4.86% 1.89% 98.107% 96.90% 99.71%
Survival Rate by week
Week Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% R% w estm asymp Known outcome Recover % Known outcome Death% Known outcome Cases Dth / Hosp %d at Home Dth% with Hosp
03/21 0 0 0 0 99.682% 0.32% 43,367
03/14 0 0 0 0 99.440% 0.56% 138,371
03/07 0 0 0 0 99.063% 0.94% 134,625
02/28 375,123 10,246 1,947 1,186 2.73% 0.52% 99.481% 98.81% 99.89% 98.665% 1.34% 145,842 0.19 39% 11.58%
02/21 321,962 11,509 2,697 1,634 3.57% 0.84% 99.162% 98.08% 99.82% 98.332% 1.67% 161,730 0.23 39% 14.20%
02/14 399,345 14,303 3,671 2,243 3.58% 0.92% 99.081% 97.91% 99.80% 98.173% 1.83% 200,970 0.26 39% 15.68%
02/07 471,811 17,701 5,411 3,178 3.75% 1.15% 98.853% 97.42% 99.76% 97.853% 2.15% 252,057 0.31 41% 17.95%
01/31 651,905 22,013 7,119 4,181 3.38% 1.09% 98.908% 97.57% 99.77% 97.924% 2.08% 342,888 0.32 41% 18.99%
01/24 765,456 26,127 9,569 5,453 3.41% 1.25% 98.750% 97.21% 99.74% 97.644% 2.36% 406,131 0.37 43% 20.87%
01/17 949,900 31,805 12,599 7,203 3.35% 1.33% 98.674% 97.06% 99.72% 97.536% 2.46% 511,384 0.40 43% 22.65%
01/10 1,211,883 36,805 15,363 8,552 3.04% 1.27% 98.732% 97.24% 99.74% 97.649% 2.35% 653,543 0.42 44% 23.24%
01/03 1,270,157 39,509 17,826 9,400 3.11% 1.40% 98.597% 97.00% 99.72% 97.195% 2.81% 635,402 0.45 47% 23.79%
12/27 927,312 37,349 16,505 9,053 4.03% 1.78% 98.220% 96.25% 99.65% 96.935% 3.06% 538,568 0.44 45% 24.24%
12/20 1,013,816 37,276 17,615 9,149 3.68% 1.74% 98.263% 96.45% 99.67% 96.986% 3.01% 584,515 0.47 48% 24.54%
12/13 1,144,338 39,181 17,864 8,765 3.42% 1.56% 98.439% 96.95% 99.71% 96.926% 3.07% 581,050 0.46 51% 22.37%
12/06 1,061,896 40,812 16,615 8,350 3.84% 1.56% 98.435% 97.08% 99.73% 97.021% 2.98% 557,786 0.41 50% 20.46%
11/29 881,070 36,038 14,883 7,185 4.09% 1.69% 98.311% 96.98% 99.72% 96.559% 3.44% 432,510 0.41 52% 19.94%
11/22 838,565 34,527 12,932 6,493 4.12% 1.54% 98.458% 97.31% 99.75% 96.949% 3.05% 423,821 0.37 50% 18.81%
11/15 828,521 30,629 11,742 5,719 3.70% 1.42% 98.583% 97.58% 99.77% 97.063% 2.94% 399,806 0.38 51% 18.67%
11/08 691,379 25,702 9,676 4,675 3.72% 1.40% 98.600% 97.65% 99.78% 97.154% 2.85% 339,948 0.38 52% 18.19%
11/01 526,939 20,393 7,537 3,626 3.87% 1.43% 98.570% 97.63% 99.78% 96.939% 3.06% 246,232 0.37 52% 17.78%
10/25 468,545 17,140 6,356 3,061 3.66% 1.36% 98.643% 97.78% 99.79% 96.907% 3.09% 205,489 0.37 52% 17.86%
10/18 361,802 14,850 5,287 2,628 4.10% 1.46% 98.539% 97.65% 99.78% 97.035% 2.96% 178,327 0.36 50% 17.70%
10/11 299,277 13,363 4,665 2,413 4.47% 1.56% 98.441% 97.53% 99.77% 97.075% 2.93% 159,486 0.35 48% 18.06%
10/04 289,093 11,937 4,254 2,149 4.13% 1.47% 98.529% 97.69% 99.78% 97.108% 2.89% 147,109 0.36 49% 18.00%
09/27 254,883 10,277 3,753 1,857 4.03% 1.47% 98.528% 97.72% 99.79% 97.171% 2.83% 132,655 0.37 51% 18.07%
09/20 231,656 9,273 3,197 1,674 4.00% 1.38% 98.620% 97.89% 99.80% 97.508% 2.49% 128,288 0.34 48% 18.05%
09/13 194,571 8,378 3,020 1,645 4.31% 1.55% 98.448% 97.65% 99.78% 97.281% 2.72% 111,059 0.36 46% 19.63%
09/06 279,826 8,626 3,385 1,647 3.08% 1.21% 98.790% 98.20% 99.83% 97.042% 2.96% 114,421 0.39 51% 19.09%
08/30 219,424 9,152 3,532 1,795 4.17% 1.61% 98.390% 97.64% 99.78% 97.133% 2.87% 123,181 0.39 49% 19.61%
08/23 251,766 10,516 4,285 2,116 4.18% 1.70% 98.298% 97.57% 99.77% 96.656% 3.34% 128,149 0.41 51% 20.12%
08/16 232,373 11,759 4,487 2,349 5.06% 1.93% 98.069% 97.34% 99.75% 96.611% 3.39% 132,409 0.38 48% 19.98%
08/09 236,198 12,592 4,677 2,667 5.33% 1.98% 98.020% 97.41% 99.76% 96.588% 3.41% 137,059 0.37 43% 21.18%
08/02 273,174 14,912 5,336 3,006 5.46% 1.95% 98.047% 97.58% 99.77% 96.622% 3.38% 157,981 0.36 44% 20.16%
07/26 292,194 16,371 5,755 3,301 5.60% 1.97% 98.030% 97.69% 99.78% 96.637% 3.36% 171,147 0.35 43% 20.16%
07/19 342,227 18,878 6,255 3,713 5.52% 1.83% 98.172% 97.96% 99.81% 96.833% 3.17% 197,512 0.33 41% 19.67%
07/12 333,888 18,976 5,884 3,692 5.68% 1.76% 98.238% 98.10% 99.82% 97.110% 2.89% 203,598 0.31 37% 19.46%
07/05 285,541 17,040 4,798 3,057 5.97% 1.68% 98.320% 98.22% 99.83% 97.385% 2.62% 183,476 0.28 36% 17.94%
06/28 259,348 14,522 4,132 2,559 5.60% 1.59% 98.407% 98.33% 99.84% 97.586% 2.41% 171,135 0.28 38% 17.62%
06/21 232,004 12,406 3,516 2,163 5.35% 1.52% 98.485% 98.43% 99.85% 97.546% 2.45% 143,275 0.28 38% 17.44%
06/14 160,725 10,243 2,993 1,706 6.37% 1.86% 98.138% 98.09% 99.82% 97.122% 2.88% 104,008 0.29 43% 16.66%
06/07 136,679 9,980 3,224 1,839 7.30% 2.36% 97.641% 97.60% 99.78% 96.493% 3.51% 91,929 0.32 43% 18.43%
05/31 138,173 10,125 3,630 1,983 7.33% 2.63% 97.373% 97.35% 99.75% 95.813% 4.19% 86,700 0.36 45% 19.59%
05/24 151,855 11,321 4,431 2,393 7.46% 2.92% 97.082% 97.08% 99.73% 95.200% 4.80% 92,319 0.39 46% 21.14%
05/17 158,324 13,081 5,592 2,931 8.26% 3.53% 96.468% 96.47% 99.67% 93.918% 6.08% 91,942 0.43 48% 22.41%
05/10 156,577 15,021 6,932 3,551 9.59% 4.43% 95.573% 95.57% 99.59% 92.503% 7.50% 92,463 0.46 49% 23.64%
05/03 175,522 19,229 10,544 5,114 10.96% 6.01% 93.993% 93.99% 99.44% 89.484% 10.52% 100,264 0.55 51% 26.60%
04/26 180,824 24,030 13,374 7,109 13.29% 7.40% 92.604% 92.60% 99.31% 86.955% 13.04% 102,524 0.56 47% 29.58%
04/19 174,556 29,295 15,586 9,041 16.78% 8.93% 91.071% 91.07% 99.16% 84.563% 15.44% 100,964 0.53 42% 30.86%
04/12 186,471 37,110 19,129 12,354 19.90% 10.26% 89.742% 89.74% 99.04% 82.385% 17.61% 108,596 0.52 35% 33.29%
04/05 183,127 40,072 17,011 12,558 21.88% 9.29% 90.711% 90.71% 99.13% 84.384% 15.62% 108,932 0.42 26% 31.34%
03/29 151,393 36,443 11,930 10,021 24.07% 7.88% 92.120% 92.12% 99.26% 86.943% 13.06% 91,372 0.33 16% 27.50%
03/22 111,472 25,435 6,461 5,763 22.82% 5.80% 94.204% 94.20% 99.46% 90.686% 9.31% 69,368 0.25 11% 22.66%
03/15 40,220 9,860 2,298 2,099 24.52% 5.71% 94.286% 94.29% 99.47% 91.745% 8.25% 27,839 0.23 9% 21.29%
03/08 8,379 2,659 655 604 31.73% 7.82% 92.183% 92.18% 99.27% 88.563% 11.44% 5,727 0.25 8% 22.72%
03/01 3,162 1,056 257 234 33.40% 8.13% 91.872% 91.87% 99.24% 87.239% 12.76% 2,014 0.24 9% 22.16%
02/23 1,110 388 104 98 34.95% 9.37% 90.631% 90.63% 99.12% 83.062% 16.94% 614 0.27 6% 25.26%
02/16 734 252 64 61 34.33% 8.72% 91.281% 91.28% 99.18% 82.703% 17.30% 370 0.25 5% 24.21%
02/09 581 194 55 49 33.39% 9.47% 90.534% 90.53% 99.11% 78.846% 21.15% 260 0.28 11% 25.26%
02/02 625 90 27 19 14.40% 4.32% 95.680% 95.68% 99.60% 93.415% 6.59% 410 0.30 30% 21.11%
01/26 469 35 7 5 7.46% 1.49% 98.507% 98.51% 99.86% 97.255% 2.75% 255 0.20 29% 14.29%
01/19 477 31 10 4 6.50% 2.10% 97.904% 97.90% 99.80% 95.951% 4.05% 247 0.32 60% 12.90%
01/12 600 69 26 20 11.50% 4.33% 95.667% 95.67% 99.59% 93.158% 6.84% 380 0.38 23% 28.99%
01/05 1,232 63 25 13 5.11% 2.03% 97.971% 97.97% 99.81% 96.951% 3.05% 820 0.40 48% 20.63%
All 21,792,455 1,058,975 412,510 233,106 4.86% 1.89% 98.107% 96.90% 99.71% 96.526% 3.47% 11,936,619 0.39 43% 22.01%
Footnotes:
  1. Note on columns in the survivability tables:
    1a. To keep things simple and not to get too far afield in estimating, the calculated estimate of "recoverability w asymp considered" (R% w estm asymp), assumes same asymptomatic to sick ratio amongst those that get the virus across the board, specifically but maybe not correctly, across all age groups. I, epidemi-logically thinking this through, think the whole viral spectrum distribution, including % asymptomatic cases at the various ages, is skewed more asymptomatic in the groups that get less sick and less death in general from this virus, i.e. younger groups. So without numbers to the contrary (which I have not found yet) I would take the R% w estm asymp with a grain of salt and assume that it is less likely older people will have an asymptomatic case if they get this.
    1b. Estm Sick Rcv% - is also an estimate based on the reported cases / "sick cases" current ratio, which casts hospital cases back to a deemed sick number assuming that hosp/sick is a viral constant. That ratio was calculated for this dashboard from data early on when reported == sick. Again though, would think that the distribution ratio of sick to hospital, as with asymptomatic, is skewed higher in the groups that have less death per cases.
    1c. The rest of the columns in the survivalbility tables are not esimtates, namely they are calculated directly from the CDC data. ↩
  2. Some records had missing age. Therefore the counts are not in the age categories but were included in the "All" row.↩
  3. Recovery is considered, not dying in the literature and talking points. Not sure myself though these are exactly the same. Namely, that one may survive, but the toll on one's health otherwise may linger long after or be permanent. No ones knows for sure and that is the point of this note. If one wants to err on the side of caution in uncertain situations, try to avoid getting sick, especially the elderly. ↩
  4. To get excess death comparisons, compare each week after 3/14 to its corresponding week in 2019. As we move into 2nd year, it reuses counts from 2019 weeks as needed for comparing to weeks in 2021.↩

Informed layman's viewpoint. See "About>About" for descriptions and information. Estimates and data smoothing are used to present coherent numbers from period to period. Informational only. Should not be relied upon as your sole source for decision making.