States with >10% increase in deaths in last 3 weeks

7dD/100k is recent 7 days death count annualized. Compare to D/100K in 2017 table.

State 7dD/100k cur 7dD 3wk min +/-% Dflgs
Kentucky 293 251 179 40.2% EEEE
New York 200 745 350 112.9% AAAA
Georgia 189 385 288 33.7% AAAE
California 178 1,347 995 35.4% HAHH
Delaware 129 24 21 14.3% AAAH
Florida 126 519 375 38.4% AAAA
Arkansas 119 69 59 16.9% AHEA
North Carolina 117 235 134 75.4% AAAA
Tennessee 109 143 69 107.2% AA.A
Nebraska 108 40 10 300.0% H..A
Michigan 92 177 112 58.0% AAAA
Kansas 89 50 23 117.4% A.AA
Pennsylvania 87 213 176 21.0% AAAA
West Virginia 84 29 25 16.0% AHHA
Montana 83 17 10 70.0% AA.A
Oklahoma 82 62 0 6100.0% A.AE
Iowa 76 46 27 70.4% A.AA
District of Columbia 74 10 6 66.7% AA.A
New Hampshire 73 19 15 26.7% AAAA
Missouri 65 83 75 10.7% AAAH
-fyi- US: 109 6,965 6,072 14.7% AAAA
2017 Death Rates from CDC
Cause D/100k Avg 7d #in 2017 pct
Heart Disease 198 12,416 647,457 23.0%
Neoplasms/tumor 183 11,489 599,108 21.3%
Accidents 52 3,259 169,936 6.0%
Chronic Lung 49 3,072 160,201 5.7%
Cerebrovascular 44 2,807 146,383 5.2%
Alzheimer 37 2,328 121,404 4.3%
Diabetes 25 1,602 83,564 3.0%
Flu & pneumonia 17 1,067 55,672 2.0%
Sephritis 15 971 50,633 1.8%
Suicide 14 904 47,173 1.7%
Liver disease 12 800 41,743 1.5%
Septicemia 12 784 40,922 1.5%
Hypertension 10 677 35,316 1.3%
Parkinson 9 612 31,963 1.1%
Pneumonitis 6 385 20,108 0.7%
Other 172 10,776 561,920 20.0%
All 863 53,957 2,813,503 100.0%

States with Increasing Covid-19 Death Toll1


States with greater than 10% increase in deaths over last 3 weeks.

(> 1 death per day and 7dD/100K more than accident, 52)

Graphs show the states with the highest deaths per 100K population.

Annualized 7dD/100k
# Deaths in last 7 days (7dD)


History and projections for top 5 states
The projections are of "Sick cases" 2 (max:3) and Deaths.
Footnotes:
  1. States above had least 10% increase in deaths in last week compared to the minimum of last 3 weeks and its current 7-day annualized population death rate (7d/100k) is greater than "accident" and there were more than 1 per day.
    1a. Death rate on small counties when deaths are even just 1 or 2 gets to be huge when annualized. To be more realistic use the 3 week average instead of just 7 days for smaller counties. This is done to avoid giving too much weight to a few isolated deaths.
    1b. US projection graph is shown just for reference.
    1c. States shown in order of their current population death rate. ↩

  2. Sick Cases: the reported cases estimated to be roughly equivalent to original make up of cases early on. Early on cases were by and large limited to clinically sick. The estimation is done using current state's hospitalization and deeming an equivalent number of "sick" cases that would match the early on hospitalization rate. ↩

  3. Max Sick Cases: Assuming an average asymptomatic cases/sick cases factor, this is max sick cases before entire population would have been infected. ↩

Informed layman's viewpoint. See "About>About" for descriptions and information. Estimates and data smoothing are used to present coherent numbers from period to period. Informational only. Should not be relied upon as your sole source for decision making.