Weekly annualized death rates. 2019, 2020/21 other deaths, and covid
Week 2019 0-24 0-24 C 0-24 2019 25-44 25-44 C 25-44 2019 45-64 45-64 C 45-64 2019 65-74 65-74 C 65-74 2019 75+ 75+ C 75+ 2019 All ages All ages C All ages
06/12 19 17 0 42 47 1 156 147 9 163 155 8 447 396 11 827 762 29
06/05 19 18 0 45 48 1 161 151 11 162 160 9 448 408 13 835 786 34
05/29 20 18 0 44 48 2 158 152 12 160 162 10 446 413 17 828 794 41
05/22 18 19 0 42 49 3 158 156 14 165 168 13 460 423 19 843 815 48
05/15 18 19 0 41 49 3 158 159 15 163 165 14 461 418 23 841 810 56
05/08 18 19 0 41 51 3 161 159 18 163 165 15 456 420 24 840 814 60
05/01 18 19 0 44 49 3 158 161 18 167 170 16 460 430 27 848 828 64
04/24 17 19 0 42 51 4 159 161 19 165 170 17 459 431 29 842 833 70
04/17 18 18 0 42 51 3 161 161 19 165 168 16 470 421 29 856 818 68
04/10 18 19 0 43 54 3 161 166 17 169 175 16 479 438 29 871 853 66
04/03 18 18 0 42 53 3 166 157 15 171 169 17 492 427 29 888 825 65
03/27 18 20 0 42 52 2 163 165 18 171 170 17 496 447 31 890 855 69
03/20 18 18 0 41 52 3 167 161 17 173 170 19 498 440 36 896 842 75
03/13 17 18 0 43 50 2 168 162 21 178 173 23 503 450 41 909 853 87
03/06 17 18 0 44 51 3 171 168 22 181 175 27 506 454 50 919 866 102
02/27 19 19 0 43 50 3 171 167 27 179 182 34 499 467 67 910 885 131
02/20 18 18 0 40 48 4 170 171 33 176 183 41 506 474 85 911 894 163
02/13 17 17 0 41 52 5 170 171 40 177 178 49 505 465 110 910 883 204
02/06 18 19 1 42 53 5 171 171 46 180 185 63 508 482 144 919 909 259
01/30 17 19 1 40 50 7 172 173 56 175 186 73 509 492 179 913 919 316
01/23 17 19 0 41 51 9 170 174 61 176 188 84 506 498 210 909 929 365
01/16 17 18 1 40 54 8 168 180 66 177 191 91 511 513 232 914 957 397
01/09 17 17 1 42 54 9 172 181 65 178 190 90 507 510 239 916 953 404
01/02 18 19 1 44 55 8 174 180 62 176 195 85 504 523 232 916 973 388
12/26 19 18 0 46 51 7 168 182 57 177 190 77 508 515 224 918 955 366
12/19 18 19 1 44 52 6 165 177 51 176 190 74 500 512 217 902 949 350
12/12 18 18 0 44 51 6 166 181 46 173 188 66 504 518 209 905 957 328
12/05 18 18 0 44 50 5 168 172 40 174 185 61 495 496 184 899 922 291
11/28 18 18 0 43 51 5 161 167 34 169 181 51 480 486 155 871 904 245
11/21 18 19 0 43 52 4 162 169 29 175 184 43 485 490 133 882 913 209
11/14 19 20 0 43 51 3 163 172 24 171 182 34 482 487 106 878 911 167
11/07 18 20 0 44 54 3 165 173 19 173 182 29 475 493 86 875 922 137
10/31 17 19 0 45 51 2 157 166 16 164 179 23 466 469 68 849 884 110
10/24 18 18 0 43 49 2 156 168 14 166 173 20 466 472 58 848 880 94
10/17 18 19 0 43 50 2 159 165 12 168 174 18 465 461 49 853 868 81
10/10 18 20 0 42 53 2 156 172 12 163 176 16 456 471 45 834 892 75
10/03 18 20 0 44 51 2 157 166 11 160 175 15 447 459 39 825 870 66
09/26 17 19 0 44 52 2 156 167 12 163 175 15 448 469 38 828 882 67
09/19 19 20 0 42 51 2 153 167 12 156 174 15 442 456 38 813 869 67
09/12 18 21 0 41 52 2 153 169 14 159 169 17 440 451 39 811 862 72
09/05 19 20 0 46 54 2 157 169 14 156 172 17 437 449 44 814 865 79
08/29 18 20 0 43 54 2 154 168 17 159 170 21 429 456 50 803 867 90
08/22 18 20 0 44 53 3 153 169 20 157 176 24 430 462 53 801 880 100
08/15 18 20 0 44 54 4 151 172 22 159 177 26 429 460 62 801 883 114
08/08 18 20 0 45 54 4 155 175 24 158 173 28 436 454 66 812 875 123
08/01 18 20 0 43 55 4 154 171 27 158 175 30 434 455 69 808 876 130
07/25 19 21 0 45 55 5 156 171 26 157 174 30 434 456 67 811 877 129
07/18 19 21 0 43 57 5 157 171 24 160 173 25 433 455 59 811 877 113
07/11 19 22 0 43 55 4 159 178 19 158 177 20 437 448 47 816 880 91
07/04 19 21 0 46 54 3 160 174 15 159 170 15 438 447 37 822 866 71
06/27 20 21 0 42 54 2 156 167 13 160 168 13 442 447 32 820 856 60
06/20 18 21 0 44 53 2 156 167 12 162 169 12 442 438 34 821 848 60
06/13 19 22 0 42 52 2 156 167 13 163 166 14 447 436 37 827 843 66
06/06 19 22 0 45 55 2 161 169 14 162 164 17 448 434 46 835 844 79
05/30 20 19 0 44 54 2 158 162 16 160 164 20 446 438 58 828 838 97
05/23 18 19 0 42 53 3 158 167 19 165 165 23 460 447 69 843 852 113
05/16 18 19 0 41 52 3 158 166 22 163 168 29 461 460 90 841 865 145
05/09 18 19 0 41 52 4 161 171 27 163 169 36 456 460 109 840 871 176
05/02 18 18 0 44 52 4 158 165 30 167 173 41 460 471 131 848 879 207
04/25 17 19 0 42 50 4 159 169 39 165 173 48 459 502 152 842 914 244
04/18 18 17 0 42 48 6 161 169 44 165 179 56 470 520 162 856 934 269
04/11 18 19 0 43 51 7 161 178 48 169 191 57 479 544 144 871 983 255
04/04 18 17 0 42 48 6 166 179 34 171 189 37 492 541 81 888 974 159
03/28 18 18 0 42 47 3 163 170 11 171 180 11 496 522 25 890 937 50
03/21 18 18 0 41 47 0 167 169 2 173 183 2 498 501 5 896 918 9
03/14 17 18 0 43 46 0 168 169 0 178 184 0 503 501 1 909 918 1
03/07 17 18 0 44 47 0 171 173 0 181 185 0 506 512 0 919 934 1
02/29 19 19 0 43 46 0 171 172 0 179 184 0 499 509 0 910 929 0
02/22 18 17 0 40 46 0 170 170 0 176 181 0 506 508 0 911 923 0
02/15 17 18 0 41 45 0 170 170 0 177 182 0 505 506 0 910 921 0
02/08 18 19 0 42 45 0 171 174 0 180 182 0 508 512 0 919 932 0
02/01 17 18 0 40 44 0 172 170 0 175 183 0 509 507 0 913 922 0

This data is from death certificates to CDC which can be delayed 1 to 8 weeks. Left off 4 weeks, but last weeks shown for 2020/21 are likely still incomplete. Updated weekly at CDC on Wednesday; here, Thursday.

Detailed age table and excess death %s
Only weeks in virus period are included, i.e. after 3/14/20 thru 4 weeks ago. "Other causes" are from 2020/21, xtra% compares to corresponding 2019 weeks4
0-1y 1-4y 5-14y 15-24y 25-34y 35-44y 45-54y 55-64y 65-74y 75-84y 85+y All ages 65- 74 % of D 75+ % of D
D/100k annualized
Oth in all pop 5.72 1.03 1.66 11 22 30 52 118 177 212 259 890
Cvd in all pop 0.02 0.01 0.03 0.24 1.05 2.66 7.37 18 32 40 43 145
Within age group
Oth in age grp 479 22 13 84 156 239 419 913 1,850 4,352 12,858 890
Cvd in age grp 1.65 0.2 0.23 1.85 7.49 21 59 142 337 817 2,141 145
Stats w-in age
Pop (M) 3.92 15.66 40.99 42.69 45.93 41.65 40.88 42.44 31.49 15.97 6.61 328.23
% died other 0.598 0.027 0.017 0.105 0.196 0.299 0.524 1.141 2.312 5.44 16.073 1.112
% from covid 0.002 0.0 0.0 0.002 0.009 0.026 0.074 0.178 0.421 1.021 2.677 0.181
%xtra dths cvd 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 4.8 8.8 14.1 15.6 18.2 18.8 16.7 16.3
%xtra dths this yr -> -> -> 6.9 -> 29.2 -> 20.2 24.2 16.7 <- 19.2
Death Counts
Other Causes 23,455 4,210 6,799 44,684 89,838 124,620 214,298 484,190 728,066 868,800 1,062,428 3,651,388
Covid Deaths 81 39 116 988 4,303 10,918 30,234 75,531 132,533 163,075 176,917 594,735
2019 Deaths -> -> -> 75,218 -> 177,790 -> 669,161 693,056 1,946,149 <- 3,561,374
Covid -> -> -> 1,224 -> 15,221 -> 105,765 132,533 339,992 <- 594,735
Other vs 2019 -> -> -> 3,930 -> 36,668 -> 29,327 35,010 -14,921 <- 90,014
Cvd dths per Week
2021-06-12 0 1 0 6 24 71 176 373 491 398 304 1,844 27 38
2021-06-05 0 0 2 8 29 62 220 452 558 519 341 2,191 25 39
2021-05-29 0 1 1 8 31 99 244 528 632 642 450 2,636 24 41
2021-05-22 0 1 2 19 53 111 290 589 830 666 533 3,094 27 39
2021-05-15 2 0 1 19 50 127 303 678 920 829 624 3,553 26 41
2021-05-08 2 0 1 10 59 132 340 802 951 833 698 3,828 25 40
2021-05-01 0 0 2 11 58 121 351 786 1,032 938 759 4,058 25 42
2021-04-24 3 2 5 15 74 152 392 831 1,114 1,042 831 4,461 25 42
2021-04-17 1 0 0 11 55 129 389 848 1,049 1,021 846 4,349 24 43
2021-04-10 2 1 2 7 47 136 347 761 1,053 1,012 832 4,200 25 44
2021-04-03 1 1 3 11 46 117 296 682 1,090 1,015 860 4,122 26 45
2021-03-27 1 1 2 10 43 111 323 798 1,090 1,103 894 4,376 25 46
2021-03-20 0 0 2 11 43 139 325 764 1,220 1,276 1,025 4,805 25 48
2021-03-13 1 0 0 9 44 115 374 942 1,455 1,384 1,250 5,574 26 47
2021-03-06 1 0 2 9 60 128 403 997 1,737 1,738 1,443 6,518 27 49
2021-02-27 2 1 1 22 44 153 497 1,206 2,182 2,328 1,923 8,359 26 51
2021-02-20 1 0 1 13 82 169 532 1,598 2,620 2,846 2,573 10,435 25 52
2021-02-13 1 0 1 20 73 222 698 1,846 3,138 3,629 3,388 13,016 24 54
2021-02-06 2 2 4 24 97 248 810 2,152 4,024 4,679 4,491 16,533 24 55
2021-01-30 1 0 6 32 129 345 982 2,595 4,634 5,728 5,728 20,180 23 57
2021-01-23 0 0 2 25 174 389 1,046 2,872 5,353 6,698 6,720 23,279 23 58
2021-01-16 3 0 4 31 157 371 1,102 3,083 5,778 7,238 7,593 25,360 23 58
2021-01-09 2 3 4 32 165 396 1,172 2,995 5,765 7,381 7,889 25,804 22 59
2021-01-02 5 1 4 37 151 375 1,114 2,824 5,444 6,965 7,877 24,797 22 60
2020-12-26 3 1 4 22 112 349 1,023 2,608 4,922 6,693 7,622 23,359 21 61
2020-12-19 1 2 0 29 125 278 907 2,355 4,753 6,319 7,547 22,316 21 62
2020-12-12 1 1 2 25 92 272 790 2,155 4,209 6,045 7,326 20,918 20 64
2020-12-05 3 2 2 16 86 237 701 1,877 3,883 5,484 6,266 18,557 21 63
2020-11-28 0 0 3 21 79 222 542 1,614 3,244 4,563 5,330 15,618 21 63
2020-11-21 3 1 2 16 74 172 481 1,372 2,740 3,926 4,568 13,355 21 64
2020-11-14 1 0 1 10 57 136 425 1,108 2,158 3,164 3,585 10,645 20 63
2020-11-07 2 1 2 9 51 125 339 862 1,861 2,601 2,903 8,756 21 63
2020-10-31 1 0 3 12 41 117 279 743 1,476 2,045 2,305 7,022 21 62
2020-10-24 2 0 1 6 33 89 249 639 1,248 1,712 2,015 5,994 21 62
2020-10-17 0 0 0 4 30 75 207 588 1,134 1,466 1,694 5,198 22 61
2020-10-10 1 0 1 8 29 78 220 576 1,049 1,398 1,458 4,818 22 59
2020-10-03 2 0 1 6 33 75 204 481 977 1,156 1,307 4,242 23 58
2020-09-26 1 0 1 5 31 86 221 534 968 1,174 1,277 4,298 23 57
2020-09-19 0 0 1 8 33 72 200 539 984 1,171 1,267 4,275 23 57
2020-09-12 4 0 1 13 41 106 261 640 1,066 1,240 1,254 4,626 23 54
2020-09-05 0 0 1 11 35 99 254 668 1,112 1,429 1,406 5,015 22 57
2020-08-29 0 0 1 12 38 104 288 793 1,342 1,532 1,634 5,744 23 55
2020-08-22 1 2 2 18 53 126 390 886 1,502 1,683 1,720 6,383 24 53
2020-08-15 1 2 0 21 59 172 423 1,008 1,632 1,996 1,945 7,259 22 54
2020-08-08 0 1 3 15 64 179 474 1,088 1,813 2,157 2,072 7,866 23 54
2020-08-01 2 0 5 21 62 200 505 1,190 1,940 2,211 2,166 8,302 23 53
2020-07-25 0 0 3 26 86 223 523 1,153 1,939 2,170 2,116 8,239 24 52
2020-07-18 1 0 2 23 101 198 465 1,042 1,610 1,833 1,917 7,192 22 52
2020-07-11 3 1 3 23 73 206 375 853 1,273 1,487 1,487 5,784 22 51
2020-07-04 2 0 2 21 71 149 326 641 978 1,092 1,271 4,553 21 52
2020-06-27 3 2 0 16 34 95 263 550 807 959 1,111 3,840 21 54
2020-06-20 0 1 0 11 33 103 239 522 765 963 1,210 3,847 20 56
2020-06-13 1 0 1 7 51 102 259 585 875 1,061 1,288 4,230 21 56
2020-06-06 1 2 0 6 42 105 298 593 1,082 1,269 1,657 5,055 21 58
2020-05-30 0 1 1 11 39 104 310 717 1,285 1,548 2,156 6,172 21 60
2020-05-23 0 0 0 6 61 115 330 867 1,456 1,869 2,541 7,245 20 61
2020-05-16 1 1 3 12 58 144 420 1,012 1,828 2,338 3,415 9,232 20 62
2020-05-09 2 1 4 19 59 172 462 1,273 2,301 2,916 4,022 11,231 20 62
2020-05-02 1 0 3 13 79 204 516 1,406 2,641 3,501 4,847 13,211 20 63
2020-04-25 2 0 1 23 73 214 701 1,757 3,064 4,216 5,497 15,548 20 62
2020-04-18 0 0 0 17 120 284 797 2,029 3,576 4,652 5,717 17,192 21 60
2020-04-11 1 1 2 25 111 309 851 2,190 3,654 4,437 4,728 16,309 22 56
2020-04-04 1 0 0 14 117 269 700 1,476 2,365 2,687 2,492 10,121 23 51
2020-03-28 2 0 1 6 44 116 248 471 719 844 760 3,211 22 50
2020-03-21 0 1 1 1 5 19 42 68 142 160 146 585 24 52
2020-03-14 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 6 17 15 18 59 29 56
2020-03-07 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 5 11 7 12 37 30 51
2020-02-29 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 1 2 9 22 33
2020-02-22 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 2 1 6 17 50
2020-02-15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 50
2020-02-08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 33
2020-02-01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1
Survival (aka Recovery3) Rates1, (known outcomes) Recent 4 weeks

From CDC Surveillance system covid case reports published month-end. Cases thru 2 weeks prior. Missing age2

Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% D% w estm asymp
0 - 9 16,828 262 5 3 1.56% 0.03% 99.970% 99.93% 0.0063%
10 - 19 30,945 374 6 2 1.21% 0.02% 99.981% 99.96% 0.0041%
20 - 29 36,483 799 33 13 2.19% 0.09% 99.910% 99.79% 0.0193%
30 - 39 33,538 1,206 64 29 3.60% 0.19% 99.809% 99.57% 0.0407%
40 - 49 26,870 1,341 140 69 4.99% 0.52% 99.479% 98.81% 0.1112%
50 - 59 23,851 1,965 340 178 8.24% 1.43% 98.574% 96.75% 0.3042%
60 - 69 15,914 2,301 566 334 14.46% 3.56% 96.443% 91.90% 0.7589%
70 - 79 8,459 1,879 664 415 22.21% 7.85% 92.150% 82.11% 1.6748%
80+ 5,240 1,427 756 410 27.23% 14.43% 85.573% 67.12% 3.0784%
All ages 198,470 11,555 2,574 1,453 5.82% 1.30% 98.703% 97.04% 0.2767%
...prior 4 weeks
Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% D% w estm asymp
0 - 9 45,677 463 9 3 1.01% 0.02% 99.980% 99.96% 0.0042%
10 - 19 91,883 684 24 11 0.74% 0.03% 99.974% 99.94% 0.0056%
20 - 29 99,335 1,597 88 36 1.61% 0.09% 99.911% 99.80% 0.0189%
30 - 39 87,537 2,491 214 112 2.85% 0.24% 99.756% 99.44% 0.0522%
40 - 49 72,613 3,326 552 284 4.58% 0.76% 99.240% 98.27% 0.1624%
50 - 59 63,011 4,829 1,180 667 7.66% 1.87% 98.127% 95.73% 0.4001%
60 - 69 39,167 5,345 2,078 1,204 13.65% 5.31% 94.695% 87.89% 1.1336%
70 - 79 18,907 4,309 2,388 1,392 22.79% 12.63% 87.370% 71.18% 2.6985%
80+ 11,426 3,469 2,755 1,473 30.36% 24.11% 75.888% 44.98% 5.1516%
All ages 530,453 26,526 9,289 5,182 5.00% 1.75% 98.249% 96.00% 0.3742%
...from beginning
Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% D% w estm asymp
0 - 9 690,356 8,551 233 85 1.24% 0.03% 99.966% 99.94% 0.0056%
10 - 19 1,587,027 13,479 429 191 0.85% 0.03% 99.973% 99.95% 0.0044%
20 - 29 2,534,601 41,345 2,373 1,127 1.63% 0.09% 99.906% 99.85% 0.0143%
30 - 39 2,209,463 62,640 5,953 3,359 2.84% 0.27% 99.731% 99.56% 0.0412%
40 - 49 2,010,147 87,053 14,542 8,905 4.33% 0.72% 99.277% 98.82% 0.1101%
50 - 59 1,959,434 140,678 37,958 24,358 7.18% 1.94% 98.063% 96.86% 0.2942%
60 - 69 1,398,298 184,180 81,987 53,140 13.17% 5.86% 94.137% 90.51% 0.8884%
70 - 79 794,494 188,094 123,603 75,991 23.67% 15.56% 84.443% 75.14% 2.3279%
80+ 620,263 189,512 219,138 106,119 30.55% 35.33% 64.670% 46.43% 5.0162%
All ages 13,818,974 915,796 486,254 273,284 6.63% 3.52% 96.481% 94.24% 0.5397%
Survival Rates (best case assumption) Recent

Assume missing death indicator means did not die. Leave off additional 3 weeks to get more outcomes.

Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% D% w estm asymp
0 - 9 93,460 603 10 5 0.65% 0.01% 99.989% 99.98% 0.0023%
10 - 19 190,115 961 18 8 0.51% 0.01% 99.991% 99.98% 0.0020%
20 - 29 232,143 2,333 81 38 1.00% 0.03% 99.965% 99.92% 0.0075%
30 - 39 203,079 3,685 193 95 1.81% 0.10% 99.905% 99.78% 0.0203%
40 - 49 169,598 4,720 474 240 2.78% 0.28% 99.721% 99.36% 0.0597%
50 - 59 151,907 6,723 988 545 4.43% 0.65% 99.350% 98.52% 0.1389%
60 - 69 93,440 7,267 1,741 975 7.78% 1.86% 98.137% 95.75% 0.3979%
70 - 79 42,060 5,602 2,012 1,147 13.32% 4.78% 95.216% 89.09% 1.0215%
80+ 23,483 4,192 2,305 1,179 17.85% 9.82% 90.184% 77.61% 2.0961%
All ages 1,207,453 36,099 7,823 4,232 2.99% 0.65% 99.352% 98.52% 0.1384%
...prior 4 weeks (best case assumption)
Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% D% w estm asymp
0 - 9 102,370 773 7 3 0.76% 0.01% 99.993% 99.98% 0.0015%
10 - 19 216,826 1,216 19 9 0.56% 0.01% 99.991% 99.98% 0.0019%
20 - 29 299,201 3,178 110 46 1.06% 0.04% 99.963% 99.92% 0.0079%
30 - 39 254,883 4,970 259 137 1.95% 0.10% 99.898% 99.77% 0.0218%
40 - 49 215,275 6,338 567 310 2.94% 0.26% 99.737% 99.40% 0.0564%
50 - 59 202,395 9,871 1,463 870 4.88% 0.72% 99.277% 98.35% 0.1548%
60 - 69 121,229 10,554 2,537 1,617 8.71% 2.09% 97.907% 95.21% 0.4483%
70 - 79 50,929 7,942 2,698 1,699 15.59% 5.30% 94.702% 87.88% 1.1349%
80+ 28,554 6,364 3,174 1,982 22.29% 11.12% 88.884% 74.57% 2.3813%
All ages 1,495,616 51,226 10,835 6,673 3.43% 0.72% 99.276% 98.34% 0.1552%
...from beginning (best case assumption)
Age Group Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% D% w estm asymp
0 - 9 1,261,809 12,371 230 84 0.98% 0.02% 99.982% 99.97% 0.0031%
10 - 19 2,979,271 19,848 426 190 0.67% 0.01% 99.986% 99.97% 0.0024%
20 - 29 4,980,225 62,615 2,357 1,123 1.26% 0.05% 99.953% 99.92% 0.0074%
30 - 39 4,328,214 93,117 5,921 3,344 2.15% 0.14% 99.863% 99.77% 0.0214%
40 - 49 3,922,687 126,104 14,465 8,863 3.21% 0.37% 99.631% 99.39% 0.0574%
50 - 59 3,811,344 199,349 37,766 24,257 5.23% 0.99% 99.009% 98.35% 0.1542%
60 - 69 2,668,774 253,317 81,688 52,961 9.49% 3.06% 96.939% 94.92% 0.4757%
70 - 79 1,449,897 248,562 123,240 75,763 17.14% 8.50% 91.500% 86.02% 1.3088%
80+ 1,019,483 235,193 218,714 105,891 23.07% 21.45% 78.547% 66.41% 3.1451%
All ages 26,604,037 1,251,077 484,845 272,485 4.70% 1.82% 98.178% 96.94% 0.2862%
Survival Rate by week
Week Rptd Cases Hosp Deaths Dth with Hosp Hosp % Death % Recover % Estm Sick Rcv% D% w estm asymp Known outcome Recover % Known outcome Death% Known outcome Cases Dth / Hosp %d at Home Dth% with Hosp
06/06 0 0 0 0 99.114% 0.89% 21,682
05/30 0 0 0 0 98.945% 1.06% 41,503
05/23 0 0 0 0 98.625% 1.37% 56,663
05/16 206,589 6,810 1,165 654 3.30% 0.56% 99.436% 98.71% 0.1204% 98.518% 1.48% 78,622 0.17 44% 9.60%
05/09 288,999 8,153 2,047 941 2.82% 0.71% 99.292% 98.38% 0.1512% 97.844% 2.16% 94,930 0.25 54% 11.54%
05/02 310,276 9,792 2,049 1,194 3.16% 0.66% 99.340% 98.49% 0.1410% 98.273% 1.73% 118,679 0.21 42% 12.19%
04/25 401,589 11,344 2,562 1,443 2.82% 0.64% 99.362% 98.54% 0.1363% 98.339% 1.66% 154,204 0.23 44% 12.72%
04/18 364,566 12,319 2,631 1,604 3.38% 0.72% 99.278% 98.35% 0.1543% 98.382% 1.62% 162,640 0.21 39% 13.02%
04/11 368,675 13,297 2,761 1,689 3.61% 0.75% 99.251% 98.29% 0.1603% 98.448% 1.55% 177,852 0.21 39% 12.70%
04/04 355,615 12,750 2,714 1,694 3.59% 0.76% 99.237% 98.26% 0.1634% 98.435% 1.57% 173,418 0.21 38% 13.29%
03/28 406,760 12,860 2,729 1,686 3.16% 0.67% 99.329% 98.46% 0.1441% 98.507% 1.49% 182,813 0.21 38% 13.11%
03/21 447,220 13,318 2,984 1,703 2.98% 0.67% 99.333% 98.47% 0.1434% 98.387% 1.61% 185,030 0.22 43% 12.79%
03/14 329,160 12,096 2,671 1,636 3.67% 0.81% 99.189% 98.14% 0.1745% 98.321% 1.68% 159,043 0.22 39% 13.53%
03/07 336,905 11,641 2,690 1,642 3.46% 0.80% 99.202% 98.17% 0.1713% 98.232% 1.77% 152,138 0.23 39% 14.11%
02/28 476,488 12,326 3,445 1,925 2.59% 0.72% 99.277% 98.35% 0.1546% 97.866% 2.13% 161,471 0.28 44% 15.62%
02/21 354,466 13,500 4,004 2,368 3.81% 1.13% 98.870% 97.44% 0.2400% 97.750% 2.25% 177,956 0.30 41% 17.54%
02/14 427,245 16,369 4,947 2,934 3.83% 1.16% 98.842% 97.41% 0.2429% 97.715% 2.29% 216,492 0.30 41% 17.92%
02/07 501,540 19,954 6,913 4,004 3.98% 1.38% 98.622% 96.93% 0.2876% 97.427% 2.57% 268,673 0.35 42% 20.07%
01/31 726,265 24,526 9,079 5,099 3.38% 1.25% 98.750% 97.21% 0.2610% 97.533% 2.47% 368,050 0.37 44% 20.79%
01/24 785,446 28,846 11,508 6,455 3.67% 1.47% 98.535% 96.77% 0.3025% 97.256% 2.74% 419,320 0.40 44% 22.38%
01/17 999,836 35,425 14,849 8,434 3.54% 1.49% 98.515% 96.78% 0.3016% 97.209% 2.79% 531,954 0.42 43% 23.81%
01/10 1,248,714 40,897 17,451 9,854 3.28% 1.40% 98.602% 97.03% 0.2785% 97.394% 2.61% 669,746 0.43 44% 24.09%
01/03 1,354,699 43,461 20,187 10,721 3.21% 1.49% 98.510% 96.88% 0.2920% 96.965% 3.04% 665,131 0.46 47% 24.67%
12/27 996,364 40,541 18,285 10,026 4.07% 1.84% 98.165% 96.30% 0.3468% 96.730% 3.27% 559,170 0.45 45% 24.73%
12/20 1,101,227 40,578 19,546 10,190 3.68% 1.77% 98.225% 96.58% 0.3206% 96.810% 3.19% 612,761 0.48 48% 25.11%
12/13 1,176,242 42,253 19,598 9,833 3.59% 1.67% 98.334% 96.93% 0.2878% 96.706% 3.29% 594,885 0.46 50% 23.27%
12/06 1,100,368 43,839 17,981 9,248 3.98% 1.63% 98.366% 97.10% 0.2714% 96.863% 3.14% 573,209 0.41 49% 21.10%
11/29 933,767 38,655 16,276 7,988 4.14% 1.74% 98.257% 96.98% 0.2830% 96.396% 3.60% 451,617 0.42 51% 20.66%
11/22 897,354 36,986 14,565 7,374 4.12% 1.62% 98.377% 97.24% 0.2586% 96.711% 3.29% 442,851 0.39 49% 19.94%
11/15 864,049 32,783 12,985 6,400 3.79% 1.50% 98.497% 97.48% 0.2359% 96.873% 3.13% 415,235 0.40 51% 19.52%
11/08 720,920 27,589 10,776 5,305 3.83% 1.49% 98.505% 97.53% 0.2314% 96.949% 3.05% 353,242 0.39 51% 19.23%
11/01 543,249 21,734 8,352 4,040 4.00% 1.54% 98.463% 97.49% 0.2346% 96.733% 3.27% 255,629 0.38 52% 18.59%
10/25 480,890 18,250 7,083 3,424 3.80% 1.47% 98.527% 97.64% 0.2211% 96.670% 3.33% 212,708 0.39 52% 18.76%
10/18 369,970 15,711 5,826 2,906 4.25% 1.57% 98.425% 97.51% 0.2334% 96.829% 3.17% 183,729 0.37 50% 18.50%
10/11 306,081 13,963 5,064 2,598 4.56% 1.65% 98.346% 97.41% 0.2425% 96.922% 3.08% 164,545 0.36 49% 18.61%
10/04 293,527 12,401 4,548 2,261 4.22% 1.55% 98.451% 97.61% 0.2240% 96.968% 3.03% 149,981 0.37 50% 18.23%
09/27 258,753 10,627 3,991 1,934 4.11% 1.54% 98.458% 97.65% 0.2204% 97.052% 2.95% 135,370 0.38 52% 18.20%
09/20 236,070 9,639 3,493 1,801 4.08% 1.48% 98.520% 97.77% 0.2088% 97.341% 2.66% 131,346 0.36 48% 18.68%
09/13 198,188 8,699 3,250 1,737 4.39% 1.64% 98.360% 97.57% 0.2278% 97.156% 2.84% 114,284 0.37 47% 19.97%
09/06 280,526 8,903 3,593 1,738 3.17% 1.28% 98.719% 98.13% 0.1748% 96.949% 3.05% 117,746 0.40 52% 19.52%
08/30 223,544 9,455 3,807 1,909 4.23% 1.70% 98.297% 97.59% 0.2258% 96.990% 3.01% 126,493 0.40 50% 20.19%
08/23 255,090 10,815 4,576 2,241 4.24% 1.79% 98.206% 97.56% 0.2280% 96.504% 3.50% 130,904 0.42 51% 20.72%
08/16 235,218 12,063 4,731 2,450 5.13% 2.01% 97.989% 97.40% 0.2432% 96.485% 3.51% 134,601 0.39 48% 20.31%
08/09 239,159 13,014 4,884 2,796 5.44% 2.04% 97.958% 97.50% 0.2337% 96.507% 3.49% 139,823 0.38 43% 21.48%
08/02 276,020 15,283 5,588 3,132 5.54% 2.02% 97.976% 97.66% 0.2187% 96.523% 3.48% 160,701 0.37 44% 20.49%
07/26 296,002 16,832 6,020 3,411 5.69% 2.03% 97.966% 97.76% 0.2101% 96.560% 3.44% 174,990 0.36 43% 20.26%
07/19 338,233 19,343 6,597 3,875 5.72% 1.95% 98.050% 97.91% 0.1961% 96.729% 3.27% 201,696 0.34 41% 20.03%
07/12 334,179 19,501 6,158 3,842 5.84% 1.84% 98.157% 98.05% 0.1823% 97.056% 2.94% 209,168 0.32 38% 19.70%
07/05 294,267 17,651 5,065 3,202 6.00% 1.72% 98.279% 98.20% 0.1682% 97.319% 2.68% 188,889 0.29 37% 18.14%
06/28 264,298 15,002 4,301 2,637 5.68% 1.63% 98.373% 98.32% 0.1576% 97.547% 2.45% 175,363 0.29 39% 17.58%
06/21 237,000 12,886 3,730 2,273 5.44% 1.57% 98.426% 98.39% 0.1508% 97.480% 2.52% 148,037 0.29 39% 17.64%
06/14 161,697 10,568 3,238 1,818 6.54% 2.00% 97.997% 97.97% 0.1901% 96.964% 3.04% 106,646 0.31 44% 17.20%
06/07 141,200 10,413 3,575 1,974 7.37% 2.53% 97.468% 97.46% 0.2381% 96.218% 3.78% 94,519 0.34 45% 18.96%
05/31 141,712 10,555 4,037 2,127 7.45% 2.85% 97.151% 97.15% 0.2667% 95.477% 4.52% 89,252 0.38 47% 20.15%
05/24 154,417 11,821 4,874 2,553 7.66% 3.16% 96.844% 96.84% 0.2955% 94.893% 5.11% 95,446 0.41 48% 21.60%
05/17 161,652 13,686 6,267 3,153 8.47% 3.88% 96.123% 96.12% 0.3630% 93.431% 6.57% 95,402 0.46 50% 23.04%
05/10 159,158 15,734 7,617 3,818 9.89% 4.79% 95.214% 95.21% 0.4481% 92.081% 7.92% 96,181 0.48 50% 24.27%
05/03 180,817 20,046 11,332 5,453 11.09% 6.27% 93.733% 93.73% 0.5868% 89.236% 10.76% 105,281 0.57 52% 27.20%
04/26 185,547 24,884 14,298 7,527 13.41% 7.71% 92.294% 92.29% 0.7215% 86.663% 13.34% 107,207 0.57 47% 30.25%
04/19 176,822 30,276 16,736 9,619 17.12% 9.46% 90.535% 90.54% 0.8862% 83.882% 16.12% 103,837 0.55 43% 31.77%
04/12 189,000 38,179 20,483 13,039 20.20% 10.84% 89.162% 89.16% 1.0148% 81.601% 18.40% 111,327 0.54 36% 34.15%
04/05 185,005 41,026 18,165 13,113 22.18% 9.82% 90.181% 90.18% 0.9193% 83.671% 16.33% 111,246 0.44 28% 31.96%
03/29 153,156 37,256 12,870 10,449 24.33% 8.40% 91.597% 91.60% 0.7868% 86.227% 13.77% 93,443 0.35 19% 28.05%
03/22 112,646 25,994 6,878 6,006 23.08% 6.11% 93.894% 93.89% 0.5717% 90.317% 9.68% 71,031 0.26 13% 23.11%
03/15 40,596 10,081 2,412 2,167 24.83% 5.94% 94.059% 94.06% 0.5563% 91.532% 8.47% 28,484 0.24 10% 21.50%
03/08 8,464 2,699 667 614 31.89% 7.88% 92.120% 92.12% 0.7379% 88.653% 11.35% 5,878 0.25 8% 22.75%
03/01 3,227 1,074 268 245 33.28% 8.30% 91.695% 91.70% 0.7776% 87.183% 12.82% 2,091 0.25 9% 22.81%
02/23 1,149 387 109 104 33.68% 9.49% 90.513% 90.51% 0.8883% 82.942% 17.06% 639 0.28 5% 26.87%
02/16 765 252 65 63 32.94% 8.50% 91.503% 91.50% 0.7956% 83.791% 16.21% 401 0.26 3% 25.00%
02/09 601 197 53 49 32.78% 8.82% 91.181% 91.18% 0.8257% 80.075% 19.92% 266 0.27 8% 24.87%
02/02 917 372 101 95 40.57% 11.01% 88.986% 88.99% 1.0313% 85.341% 14.66% 689 0.27 6% 25.54%
01/26 756 305 100 94 40.34% 13.23% 86.772% 86.77% 1.2385% 80.843% 19.16% 522 0.33 6% 30.82%
01/19 661 226 70 64 34.19% 10.59% 89.410% 89.41% 0.9916% 83.373% 16.63% 421 0.31 9% 28.32%
01/12 713 211 55 46 29.59% 7.71% 92.286% 92.29% 0.7223% 88.706% 11.29% 487 0.26 16% 21.80%
01/05 1,751 155 520 44 8.85% 29.70% 70.303% 70.30% 2.7806% 59.846% 40.15% 1,295 3.35 92% 28.39%
All 26,604,037 1,251,077 484,845 272,485 4.70% 1.82% 98.178% 96.94% 0.2862% 96.481% 3.52% 13,818,974 0.39 44% 21.78%
Footnotes:
  1. Note on columns in the survivability tables:
    1a. To keep things simple and not to get too far afield in estimating, the calculated estimate of "recoverability w asymp considered" (R% w estm asymp), assumes same asymptomatic to sick ratio amongst those that get the virus across the board, specifically but maybe not correctly, across all age groups. I, epidemi-logically thinking this through, think the whole viral spectrum distribution, including % asymptomatic cases at the various ages, is skewed more asymptomatic in the groups that get less sick and less death in general from this virus, i.e. younger groups. So without numbers to the contrary (which I have not found yet) I would take the R% w estm asymp with a grain of salt and assume that it is less likely older people will have an asymptomatic case if they get this.
    1b. Estm Sick Rcv% - is also an estimate based on the reported cases / "sick cases" current ratio, which casts hospital cases back to a deemed sick number assuming that hosp/sick is a viral constant. That ratio was calculated for this dashboard from data early on when reported == sick. Again though, would think that the distribution ratio of sick to hospital, as with asymptomatic, is skewed higher in the groups that have less death per cases.
    1c. The rest of the columns in the survivalbility tables are not esimtates, namely they are calculated directly from the CDC data. ↩
  2. Some records had missing age. Therefore the counts are not in the age categories but were included in the "All" row.↩
  3. Recovery is considered, not dying in the literature and talking points. Not sure myself though these are exactly the same. Namely, that one may survive, but the toll on one's health otherwise may linger long after or be permanent. No ones knows for sure and that is the point of this note. If one wants to err on the side of caution in uncertain situations, try to avoid getting sick, especially the elderly. ↩
  4. To get excess death comparisons, compare each week after 3/14 to its corresponding week in 2019. As we move into 2nd year, it reuses counts from 2019 weeks as needed for comparing to weeks in 2021.↩

Informed layman's viewpoint. See "About>About" for descriptions and information. Estimates and data smoothing are used to present coherent numbers from period to period. Informational only. Should not be relied upon as your sole source for decision making.