Annualized 7-day D/100k Death Rates since vaccinations started.1 2
State % with 1 dose % 18+ vac % 65+ vac Dth rate %Chg Dth rate chg 12/29 01/26 02/23 03/23 04/20 05/18 06/15 06/22 06/29
District of Columbia 62% 74% 86% -100.0% -229 229 199 207 66 89 66 7 22 0
Vermont 75% 86% 100% -100.0% -150 150 67 42 42 75 25 0 0 0
Ohio 49% 60% 84% -99.6% -510 512 314 243 50 58 45 25 13 2
Rhode Island 66% 77% 96% -98.1% -497 507 477 345 113 74 44 20 15 10
Connecticut 68% 80% 96% -98.0% -361 323 369 291 69 67 63 10 12 7
Alabama 41% 51% 80% -97.2% -1032 302 819 1061 115 79 64 67 28 30
South Carolina 45% 55% 85% -97.2% -732 225 319 753 148 65 55 32 23 21
Alaska 51% 63% 82% -96.7% -204 56 211 134 42 141 120 28 0 7
New York 61% 74% 86% -96.7% -349 255 361 336 94 115 65 22 17 12
Massachusetts 71% 83% 97% -96.6% -344 313 356 327 172 54 61 24 20 12
New Hampshire 64% 74% 95% -96.2% -291 303 215 249 61 54 81 27 15 12
Hawaii 70% 84% 100% -96.1% -273 11 284 33 11 11 15 4 26 11
Iowa 52% 64% 89% -96.0% -678 266 264 706 43 61 41 41 23 28
New Mexico 64% 78% 94% -96.0% -477 497 487 346 107 52 22 37 70 20
Tennessee 43% 54% 80% -95.7% -531 338 522 554 73 66 33 28 24 24
Delaware 59% 71% 94% -95.5% -343 359 305 214 112 86 37 11 64 16
Pennsylvania 64% 77% 100% -95.2% -540 467 568 389 72 122 103 50 37 27
Nebraska 52% 66% 88% -94.8% -197 208 124 62 27 43 143 11 0 11
North Dakota 44% 56% 84% -94.7% -246 260 205 48 34 62 14 34 34 14
Illinois 61% 73% 91% -94.2% -359 381 288 199 64 67 88 49 38 22
Indiana 46% 57% 83% -94.1% -471 500 281 218 64 50 57 44 43 29
Arizona 52% 63% 85% -93.9% -795 370 847 655 162 65 37 49 64 52
California 63% 76% 95% -93.9% -475 225 506 483 164 74 32 19 21 31
North Carolina 50% 60% 84% -93.6% -296 141 317 315 67 66 53 36 47 20
Maine 67% 78% 95% -93.2% -213 116 151 229 23 54 31 31 19 16
Texas 50% 62% 84% -93.1% -396 196 425 391 158 70 53 34 32 29
Arkansas 43% 54% 78% -93.0% -482 458 518 413 100 60 54 26 33 36
South Dakota 51% 65% 92% -92.8% -377 383 224 407 59 41 83 18 6 29
Kentucky 50% 62% 86% -92.4% -342 179 352 370 236 118 58 72 27 28
Mississippi 38% 48% 78% -92.1% -452 403 487 491 84 75 47 32 51 39
Maryland 63% 76% 92% -92.0% -249 243 271 194 100 93 65 31 22 22
West Virginia 46% 55% 78% -92.0% -303 329 326 291 163 38 84 96 44 26
US country 55% 68% 90% -91.9% -339 261 369 340 100 80 66 39 33 30
Georgia 44% 55% 82% -91.6% -432 151 435 471 140 118 64 71 70 40
Nevada 51% 63% 83% -91.6% -459 328 501 400 90 66 52 36 39 42
New Jersey 64% 77% 90% -91.4% -318 265 348 281 162 154 94 36 28 30
Territory -91.4% -93 87 102 79 21 64 86 19 8 9
Louisiana 40% 50% 80% -91.3% -340 270 334 372 126 57 56 43 42 33
Montana 48% 59% 83% -90.0% -395 220 439 307 122 141 44 68 39 44
Oklahoma 46% 58% 85% -89.9% -339 217 377 368 0 37 62 13 38 38
Kansas 50% 63% 92% -89.1% -308 206 192 345 41 50 43 41 14 38
Idaho 40% 54% 81% -88.8% -207 233 155 152 67 61 44 35 70 26
Minnesota 58% 71% 92% -87.6% -242 276 149 95 38 65 65 45 30 34
Missouri 46% 57% 81% -87.5% -304 218 347 275 59 65 113 35 20 43
Michigan 52% 63% 85% -87.4% -279 320 311 164 67 223 208 82 51 40
Oregon 60% 71% 87% -86.5% -103 83 119 95 26 17 56 46 25 16
Virginia 60% 72% 90% -85.6% -197 133 230 209 61 71 71 44 24 33
Colorado 59% 71% 88% -85.1% -243 285 125 120 33 42 78 53 35 43
Florida 55% 66% 90% -82.4% -247 160 300 279 91 99 94 68 70 53
Wisconsin 55% 66% 90% -79.0% -205 244 260 194 54 30 55 35 41 55
Wyoming 40% 51% 78% -71.7% -297 288 414 243 18 18 9 81 0 117
Washington 63% 76% 92% -67.4% -109 162 155 103 28 42 38 31 34 53
Utah 50% 66% 91% -67.0% -115 101 172 117 73 21 57 10 18 57
Priority order3makes a difference in how fast death rates go down.4 Below are some sample states who look like they have have reduced their death rates the best. Looked asof 2/2/2021 and there were three states, ND, VT and NE noted below. Then reviewed on 3/2 and added two more states, OH and AR:

Ohio (death rate down 97.4% as of 3/2)

    Priority order is sliced by age over 65, versus all 65 yr olds and many younger workers all competing for limited vaccine at once as many states are doing. OH limited competition from frontline workers and held off teachers, for those 75+.
    OH website Phase 1B:
  • Jan. 19, 2021 – Ohioans 80 years of age and older.
  • Jan. 25, 2021 – Ohioans 75 years of age and older. And those with a developmental or intellectual disability...
  • Feb. 1, 2021 – Ohioans 70 years of age and older; employees of K-12 schools that wish to remain or return to in-person or hybrid models.
  • Feb. 8, 2021 – Ohioans 65 years of age and older.
  • Feb. 15, 2021 – Ohioans born with or who have early childhood conditions...

Arkansas (death rate down 89.8% as of 3/2)

    Priority order:
  • "On Jan. 18, the state will move from Phase 1A into Phase 1B. Phase 1B is tiered and includes Arkansans 70 and older, teachers and education staff, food and agricultural workers, police, firefighters, and correctional staff as well as manufacturing workers, grocery store workers, public transit workers, U.S. Postal workers, and essential government workers. Initial prioritization will be given to those who are 70 and older, teachers, and educational staff." KATV news 1/16/21
  • The key to this significant reduction versus other states might be that 70 years olds and older are given priority with limited competition from younger workers.
  • Arkansas stayed with over 70 as priority and kept the group of younger workers competing with them for vaccine low initially. Looks like they got great results. As of 2/23 they opened eligibility to all 65+.
  • As of 3/2 the acceleration of spread looks to be going up in AR so maybe the mutations are flaring up in the state. Will be interesting to see in 2 weeks time whether the rise in cases and adding the whole 65+ group will negatively affect death rates going down. I am hoping that perhaps they vaccinated enough seniors already to mute the rise in deaths from a rise in cases. See model and discussion on how a chosen priority for vaccination will affect overall death toll.

North Dakota (death rate down by 81.6% as of 2/2)

    ND gov site: Phase 1B (in order of priority):
  1. Persons age 75 and older
  2. Persons age 65 – 74 with two or more high-risk medical conditions
  3. Staff and persons living in other congregate settings (i.e., corrections, group homes, treatment centers, homeless shelters, etc.)
  4. Persons age 65 and older with one or more high-risk medical conditions
  5. Persons age 65 and older with or without high-risk medical conditions
  6. Persons with two or more high-risk medical conditions regardless of age
  7. Child care workers
  8. Workers employed by preschools or Kindergarten through 12th grade:
    Teachers, nutritional services, aides, bus drivers, principals, administrative staff, custodians, etc.

Vermont (death rate down 72.2% by 2/2 - has gotten worse though, 61.1% asof 3/2)

    VT has gotten worse. Some thoughts maybe on why...
  • Sometime after Jan 25th, VT added all first responders to be eligible and opened up to all 65+ instead of going by age. The state moved from 2nd best reduction in death rates down to only mid-2nd quartile.
  • Vermont started out doing well but has since fallen off. Hard to say conclusively, since the death numbers are so small it could be glitch. Nonetheless, maybe contrast to AR and Ohio above. They stayed the course with age priority, whereas VT changed course prematurely to include all 65+ and added all first responders. This added many more younger workers competing with seniors than was happening at first when they were having excellent death rate reduction. In contrast and coincident with the priority change in VT. Arkansas ooks to have stayed the course with the age priority and continued to get better when VT got worse.
  • All else being equal death rate should lower and stay low, however, the reason I think this is not good assumption is I was seeing the new strains being more contagious and more deadly to seniors than younger people than the original strain. So as that newer more contagious strain makes it way into an area, death rates will tend to go up, and more so even for seniors. That is all the more reason to vaccine seniors early to preempt this. I think there was a chance that VT might have stayed low(er) if their priority order of using age was followed as initially done and planned.

    • Previous vaccination order (shown below) was modified after Jan 25. Not sure if this is why their death rate is no longer going down, but vaccinating younger people before older does not reduce death rates as fast.

      see VT gov site for current priority
      The following was copied from the site on Jan 25th and shows priority order for the 2/2 death rate reduction number above:
    1. PEOPLE 75 YEARS AND OLDER. People 75 and older need to live, work or access primary care in Vermont to be eligible for the vaccine.
    2. HEALTH CARE PERSONNEL AND RESIDENTS OF LONG-TERM CARE FACILITIES. NOTE: While health care personnel are eligible and many were vaccinated in December and January, vaccine supply fluctuates. At this time health care personnel may have to wait for the next opportunity when there is more vaccine available. Check with your local hospital for updates on vaccine for health care personnel.
    3. Next: Vermont is using age groupings to determine who can receive the vaccine next based on our primary goal with vaccination efforts – to save lives. After people 75 and older, the next age grouping will be 70 years and older, then 65 and older, as vaccine supply allows. These phases will overlap.
    4. After the age groups, the vaccine will be available to people in Vermont who have certain high-risk health conditions.

Nebraska (death rate down 70.2% as of 2/2 - worse at only58.3% as of 3/2)

NE gov site (PDF):
Priority: 65 and older was first. Then:
Tier I (first responders, utilities...) and start 18-64 higher high-risk conditions
Tier II (funeral homes, grocery...) continue higher risk conditions
Tier II (transportation, usps, transit workers) continue high risk conditions

Plan now the implementation of the plan did not prioritize seniors before starting younger workers. The plan now shows 1b starting Feb 1st with the whole 65+ group, then and many workers starting 2 weeks after that. There was no age slicing as in OH and AR within the 65+ group. Started off well but, again seems to me to be another expample where the state did not continue using age as priority and too much compeition for the seniors, and conincidently death rates went back up.



A good site for further information on the vaccine rollout is the New York TImes Vaccine Rollout page. This has map of states distribution a map summarizing state's priority and age they are at in vaccinating seniors. There is a table showing priority for vaccination after 1a. That table also has link to each state's covid page.

What may be interesting to keep an eye on and correlate/note, is whether seniors are being delayed or even withheld, from getting the vaccine by having to compete with younger people, who have minimal risk of death or even severe illness... thus, prolonging high death tolls. Irony about this... footnote 5

This link will take you to the New York Times site. You will be exiting this dashboard.
NY Times Vaccine Rollout Page

Footnotes:
  1. Full weeks, ending on Tuesdays. Distribution is being done by week M-Sun. The % administered is cumulative asof the Sunday prior to the last week shown and will be updated on Wednesdays when a new week is calculated and added to the table. ↩

  2. The % vaccinated is of those receiving at least one dose. The % decrease in death rate compares latest weeky rate to rate around the time vaccines started. Prior to 5/19/2021 was comparing to a starting rate from week of 12/29/20. But that number for many states looks to be artificially low possibly due to holidays and maybe delays in reporting so changed to use the highest rate within first month of starting vaccinations, i.e. highest weekly rate from 12/29/20 thru 1/26/21. ↩

  3. Priority order is crucial to saving lives and lowering death toll. See About>Topics. Click on button link to a writeup with some estimates and models using various vaccination orders ↩

  4. There is glimmer of good news! So far there are a few states, three to be exact, who have in fact lowered their death rates by over 70% by week 5. They also are ones that seem to have focused their plan on vaccinating seniors first, versus using the de facto CDC-ACIP plan. In the top 2 states they are focused on 75+ first, then 65+. Separating these helps as well.

    Do not think that connection is solely coinicidence or happenstance. There are strong mathematical and logical foundations that support the theory and the idea of focusing vaccinations by age and those results are not out line with what would be expected given the priority order they are pursuing. It is releavent to note, that 85%, of the deaths are seniors and they make up only 15% of the population.

    The consequences and outcomes, i.e. risks of getting the virus are not nearly the same for everyone. Not sure why or how we ended up with a plan that is more (or as equally) focused on stopping amorphous spread versus primarily on saving lives of those in the groups in the most immiment harms' way... Not sure this plea will change minds or help - decisions and positions may be entrenched -- but imagine if all states would have taken notice and made decisions based on death rates versus the spread. States: it is not too late to reconsider and make some minor adjustment to order based on the data. High death tolls are overwhelmingly driven by the death rate of our seniors. Age seems to even dwarf the high health risk conditions in determining the death rates. Those over 75+ have, by far, the highest rate per their population. Next is 65+ etc. Again, 85% of all deaths are those over 65, while they comprise only 15% of the population. It would be much faster and more direct to vaccinate this group rather than all workers or age groups or even those with high risk conditions trying to lower spread as mechanism to lower death rates. Those in high risk conditions is 1/3 of the country and I htink workers are like over 1/2. Note as well, the additional risk for health condition is only an adder on top of age risk, with the age risk deltas being much greater in absolute terms. Having looked at the stats in detail, North Dakota order above seems pretty sound. One alteration to consider, in the interest of getting chilren back in school, might be to alleviate some anxiety and risk for the older teachers and give them the same priority as the 16-64 high risk group. I would suggest population 50-55+ teachers in same group as 65+ and before younger high risk so to not have the older at risk teachers wait a long time - that 16-64 high risk group is large. ↩

  5. Irony about prioritizing younger people rather than focusing on getting the death rates down in the high rate groups, namely seniors (period), is that the excess death rates in younger groups are mostly from other reasons. See "Detailed age table and excess death %s" in Graphs>Death Rates by Age, while their risk of severe illness or death from covid is minimal. Under 45 the death rate (risk) is less than half the general rate of deaths from a random accident, and under 24 it is less than a tenth of random accident. Sure, we should be careful, but we do not stop our normal lives in fear of accident, do we?
    I think the reason younger people really needed to not get this virus was to not pass it along to others who are at high risk of illness and death if they get it. If that "pass-along" risk were eliminated it may not be so critical that younger people be under lock down and mask manadates and maybe they could choose to actually live their lives -- ?? Just a thought... We will never be without risk. Yes there is minimal statistical risk, but on other hand we are seeing probable and actual harm in the school shut downs and people being prevented from working.
    I postulate that the high "other" excess death phenomena in younger groups, is a side-effect of the lockdowns and consequences of less access to routine health-care. The lockdowns were put in place to lower the death tolls and lower strain on health system capcacity. Preventive and routine doctor visits were riskier so they were curtailed, and to avoid contact, doctor visits are more and more being done virtually, which is less effective.
    So, the real irony in protecting a few younger workers over seniors, is that that prolongs lockdowns etc for the vast majority of working people and is prolonging the younger peoples' higher death rates from things other than covid!
    And let's not forget to mention: the longer the death tolls and hospitalizations remain high, the more prolonged the lockdowns, thus destroying our core social fabric AND everyone's, including the country's, economic footing. ↩

Informed layman's viewpoint. See "About>About" for descriptions and information. Estimates and data smoothing are used to present coherent numbers from period to period. Informational only. Should not be relied upon as your sole source for decision making.