Better / Worse


# Counties Better or Worse from 3 weeks ago
Recenty Worse (dashed line) is number of counties that have been worse for only a week.
# Counties by Risk Level

Hdrate: # counties with high death rate per 100k population (dflg = P) or unusually high deaths/cases (dflg=H or J). Latter may indicate nursing home outbreak(s). See About>Terminology for description of dflg field.

% Population at Risk of Outbreak


LLow: Risk is low and was low for 3 weeks prior.
Death risk based on annualized death rate/100k (% Population)


In 2017 there were 864 deaths per 100K population
Heart and cancer deaths were each about 200 per 100k
Accidents 52 per 100K

Graph shows additional risk due to Covid:

  1. high is > 832. Basically risk of death is more than double normal.
  2. elevated > 208. Covid is highest cause of death.
  3. slightly elevated > 104. One of the highest causes of death
  4. > 52 is greater than accident. More risk than normal. Maybe think of level of risk on order of driving in unfamiliar place at night. It is a risk and because a little elevated, extra attention needed. Be alert and actively steer clear of the riskier situations and/or take appropriate protection measures.
  5. less than accident. Everyday risk. Maybe think of as driving, still needs attention and care to stay out harm's way.

Informed layman's viewpoint. See "About>About" for descriptions and information. Estimates and data smoothing are used to present coherent numbers from period to period. Informational only. Should not be relied upon as your sole source for decision making.