The intent of this page is to provide some comparison data indicative of the risk between getting the vaccine versus getting Covid, for those deciding whether or not to get vaccinated.
To make an apples to apples compare, these rates are not time oriented, rather the rates are per the risk event, i.e. the one time event of getting vaccinated, or, getting covid (reported cases).1
The Covid risk specifically does not factor in the risk of getting virus in the first place. That is dependent on many other factors which are local and dependent on personal behaviors. The risk of getting the virus will likely not go away for many months though, if ever.
Vaers | Dec-Jun | |||||||
Age | Vacinated | Hosp | Deaths | D w Hosp | %Hosp | %Death | %H or D | |
00-05 | 187,548 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0.0059% | 0.0016% | 0.0069% | * |
06-17 | 8,170,896 | 796 | 14 | 2 | 0.0097% | 0.0002% | 0.0099% | * |
18-29 | 23,973,847 | 1719 | 71 | 14 | 0.0072% | 0.0003% | 0.0074% | |
30-39 | 22,979,881 | 2105 | 126 | 29 | 0.0092% | 0.0005% | 0.0096% | |
40-49 | 23,493,511 | 2514 | 206 | 44 | 0.0107% | 0.0009% | 0.0114% | |
50-64 | 43,102,144 | 5627 | 841 | 202 | 0.0131% | 0.0020% | 0.0145% | |
65+ | 44,968,737 | 10867 | 3896 | 1099 | 0.0242% | 0.0087% | 0.0304% | |
U | 1347 | 392 | 43 | |||||
Total | 166,876,564 | 24986 | 5549 | 1434 | 0.0150% | 0.0033% | 0.0174% | |
Vac/month | 23,839,509 | Months | 7 | |||||
* 00-05 %s are low because using <12 vaccinated count (best available); 06-17, uses <18 vac count | ||||||||
06-17 | 7,983,348 | 796 | 14 | 0.0100% | 0.0002% | 0.0101% | ** | |
** upper bound using vaccinated 12-17 cnt |
Covid | last 4 weeks in January | Vaers | |||||||||
Age Grp | Rptd Cases | Hosp | Deaths | D w Hosp | Hosp % | Death % | H or D% | Age | %Death | %H or D | |
0 - 9 | 195,284 | 1,304 | 21 | 5 | 0.670% | 0.010% | 0.676% | 00-05 | 0.0016% | 0.0069% | |
10-19 | 416,111 | 1,912 | 41 | 11 | 0.460% | 0.010% | 0.467% | 06-17 | 0.0002% | 0.0099% | |
20 - 29 | 638,716 | 4,799 | 190 | 88 | 0.750% | 0.030% | 0.767% | 18-29 | 0.0003% | 0.0074% | |
30 - 39 | 564,138 | 6,863 | 456 | 237 | 1.220% | 0.080% | 1.255% | 30-39 | 0.0005% | 0.0096% | |
40 - 49 | 512,817 | 9,515 | 1,229 | 711 | 1.860% | 0.240% | 1.956% | 40-49 | 0.0009% | 0.0114% | |
50 - 59 | 508,125 | 16,501 | 3,376 | 2,086 | 3.250% | 0.660% | 3.501% | 50-64 | 0.0020% | 0.0145% | |
60 - 69 | 364,445 | 24,200 | 7,707 | 4,860 | 6.640% | 2.110% | 7.421% | 65+ | 0.0087% | 0.0304% | |
70 - 79 | 201,099 | 26,228 | 12,025 | 7,385 | 13.040% | 5.980% | 15.350% | ||||
80+ | 130,067 | 25,320 | 19,598 | 10,005 | 19.470% | 15.070% | 26.842% | ||||
All ages | 3,579,144 | 116,750 | 44,650 | 25,389 | 3.260% | 1.250% | 3.800% | Total | 0.0033% | 0.0174% |
Vaers | Dec-Apr | |||||||
Age | Vacinated | Hosp | Deaths | D w Hosp | %Hosp | %Death | %H or D | |
00-05 | 8,480 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.0943% | 0.0354% | 0.1179% | * |
06-17 | 1,840,639 | 122 | 8 | 2 | 0.0066% | 0.0004% | 0.0070% | * |
18-29 | 16,817,798 | 1182 | 51 | 13 | 0.0070% | 0.0003% | 0.0073% | |
30-39 | 17,593,494 | 1705 | 94 | 26 | 0.0097% | 0.0005% | 0.0101% | |
40-49 | 18,559,522 | 2125 | 165 | 44 | 0.0114% | 0.0009% | 0.0121% | |
50-64 | 36,423,339 | 4913 | 719 | 195 | 0.0135% | 0.0020% | 0.0149% | |
65+ | 41,829,321 | 10410 | 3751 | 1089 | 0.0249% | 0.0090% | 0.0313% | |
U | 1066 | 275 | 37 | |||||
Total | 133,072,593 | 21531 | 5066 | 1407 | 0.0162% | 0.0038% | 0.0189% | |
Vac/month | 26,614,519 | Months | 5 | |||||
* 00-05 %s are low because using <12 vaccinated count (best available); 06-17, uses <18 vac count | ||||||||
06-17 | 1,832,159 | 122 | 8 | 0.0067% | 0.0004% | 0.0071% | ** | |
** upper bound using vaccinated 12-17 cnt |
Vaers | May-Jun | |||||||
Age | Vacinated | Hosp | Deaths | D w Hosp | %Hosp | %Death | %H or D | |
00-05 | 179,068 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0017% | 0.0000% | 0.0017% | * |
06-17 | 6,330,257 | 674 | 6 | 0 | 0.0106% | 0.0001% | 0.0107% | * |
18-29 | 7,156,049 | 537 | 20 | 1 | 0.0075% | 0.0003% | 0.0078% | |
30-39 | 5,386,387 | 400 | 32 | 3 | 0.0074% | 0.0006% | 0.0080% | |
40-49 | 4,933,989 | 389 | 41 | 0 | 0.0079% | 0.0008% | 0.0087% | |
50-64 | 6,678,805 | 714 | 122 | 7 | 0.0107% | 0.0018% | 0.0124% | |
65+ | 3,139,416 | 457 | 145 | 10 | 0.0146% | 0.0046% | 0.0189% | |
U | 0 | 281 | 117 | 6 | ||||
Total | 33,803,971 | 3455 | 483 | 27 | 0.0102% | 0.0014% | 0.0116% | |
Vac/month | 16,901,986 | Months | 2 | |||||
* 00-05 %s are low because using <12 vaccinated count (best available); 06-17, uses <18 vac count | ||||||||
06-17 | 6,151,189 | 674 | 6 | 0.0110% | 0.0001% | 0.0111% | ** | |
** upper bound using vaccinated 12-17 cnt | ||||||||
using vac <12 and <18 should be pretty close because theoretically under 12 are not eligible for vaccine. | ||||||||
The <12 vaccinations may be trials? And in May-Jun may be using adjusted dosing to avoid adverse effects? |
PS. I have sent a request to the CDC data set owner asking them to add vaccination status for the case to the data set. If it becomes available will republish the covid risk based on numbers for the unvaccinated from the more current variant, and will add one for the vaccinated as well. ↩
Informed layman's viewpoint. See "About>About" for descriptions and information. Estimates and data smoothing are used to present coherent numbers from period to period. Informational only. Should not be relied upon as your sole source for decision making.